Early voting swings toward Democrats in Co., may not help Udall overcome Gardner

ARAPAHOE COUNTY, Colo., Nov. 3 (UPI) -- Although polls show Republican candidates maintaining a slight lead in Colorado on the eve of the 2014 midterm elections, early voting has shifted favorably toward the Democrats in the toss-up state.

Early votes in Colorado have thus far trended Republican, but 80,000 ballots received on Saturday closed the GOP's voting breakdown to 40 percent to the Democrats' 32.

The largest voting block shift came from Arapahoe County, which constitutes the majority of the Denver suburbs. Arapahoe previously favored Republicans by four percentage points, but the 5,000 new ballots had a 7-point Democrat advantage.

"I doubt the Democrats will win the remaining votes by three points, if for no other reason than the inevitable return of [historically conservative] El Paso County," election analyst Nate Cohn wrote for the New York Times.

Democrat incumbent Mark Udall currently trails Republican challenger Cory Gardner by an average of 2.5 points in the latest polls. Despite Cohn's lack of confidence in Udall's turnout, the analyst noted the race was by no means a Republican lock.

"But the pattern makes it fairly clear that we should expect an increasingly young and Democratic set of ballots over the last few days. That trend line is underpinned by a tough fact for Republicans: The pool of voters who cast ballots in 2010 but haven't voted in 2014 lean Republican by just 2.2 points, and Mark Udall, the Democratic senator, is believed to have an edge among the state's registered independent voters."