WASHINGTON, March 7 (UPI) -- U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter cannot run as an independent should he lose the 2010 Republican primary, possibly giving him incentive to leave the GOP, observers say.
The Hill reported Saturday that Specter, a moderate Pennsylvania Republican, faces a stiff primary election fight from Pat Toomey, a conservative former congressman who tried to oust Specter in the 2004 primary. Toomey lost by about 17,000 votes out of more than 1 million ballots cast.
Political observers say Specter faces a difficult primary, partly because the Republican primary electorate in Pennsylvania has become more conservative and the primaries are closed, meaning there is no cross-over voting allowed.
"I think he has a lot of problems," said Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. "I think this is the test of lifetime."
In 2006, U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut lost in his state's Democratic primary but then ran successfully as an independent in the general election. But under Pennsylvania law, Specter does not have that option.
Forgoing the primary and going directly to the general election as an independent also is fraught with uncertainty.
"Running as an independent is not a good deal," Madonna said. "Pennsylvanians haven't elected an independent to anything."
