When both predicted high turnout and the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account in the Pew Research Center's final pre-election poll, Obama, a U.S. senator from Illinois, holds a 52 percent to 46 percent advantage over GOP nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona.
Among all the 2,995 registered voters surveyed Oct. 29-Nov. 1, Obama led McCain by 50 percent to 39 percent, an 11-point margin. McCain, however, has narrowed that gap since the previous Pew survey conducted Oct. 23-26, which showed Obama holding a 16-point, 52-36 percent lead, the pollsters said.
When narrowed to the 2,587 likely voters surveyed, 49 percent supported or were leaning toward Obama, compared with 42 percent for McCain.
The Pew pollsters also said turnout may well be significantly higher than in 2004, with increased rates of voting among young people and African Americans, who strongly favor Obama. But it also found signs of greater likely turnout across the board.
The poll's margin error was not reported.