Poll watchers warn against euphoria

WASHINGTON, Oct. 29 (UPI) -- Backers of Democratic U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama may review previous elections before getting too giddy about Obama's lead, poll watchers say.

While the most recent national CNN poll of polls indicates Obama has an 8-point lead over Republican presidential nominee John McCain, 51 percent to 43 percent, researchers said the race tends to tighten as Election Day draws closer when a non-incumbent leads. Other national polls show Obama with a lead anywhere from 5 percentage points to double digits.

"Any time it looks like they are on the verge of voting somebody new into office, there is buyer's remorse," said CNN senior researcher Alan Silverlab.

While polls indicated President George W. Bush led Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry in his re-election bid in 2004, surveys in 2000 told a different tale, Silverlab said.

Polls taken just before Election Day in 2000 showed Bush, governor of Texas at the time, leading Vice President Al Gore by 48 percent to 43 percent. Gore won the popular vote by about 540,000 votes while Bush won the Electoral College, and the presidency, by 5 electoral votes.

"We saw that with (President Bill) Clinton in 1992, when the polls suddenly tightened up during the last week," Silverlab said. "It was almost like people saying, 'Do we really want this guy?'"