Poll: Dems likely to retain House control

PRINCETON, N.J., Oct. 17 (UPI) -- Democrats are leading the race to control the U.S. House of Representatives, 51 percent to 45 percent, a national poll of likely voters indicated.

The USA Today/Gallup poll results mark a reversal of the poll's most recent results -- showing 50 percent of likely voters would vote Republican in congressional races compared with 45 percent saying they would vote Democratic -- taken right after the Republic National Convention in early September.

Democrats led in an Aug. 21-23 poll conducted before both parties' conventions took place, Gallup said.

Gallup said it was unclear if Democrats would increase their House majority much, since the current likely voter results were similar to Gallup's 2006 House vote estimate of 51 percent to 44 percent -- and the actual vote for the House that year was 53 percent to 45 percent.

Party loyalty is high in congressional voting, with 95 percent of Republicans saying they will vote for the Republican candidate in their district and 93 percent of Democrats intending to vote for the Democrat, Gallup said.

Independents are largely responsible for the pendulum swing, preferring the Democratic candidate in their congressional district to the Republican by 49 percent to 40 percent, Gallup said.

The telephone poll of 1,201 registered voters, conducted Oct. 10-12, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, Gallup said.