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Poll: Post-convention shifts common

PRINCETON, N.J., Sept. 17 (UPI) -- A shift in U.S. voter preference isn't uncommon between the end of the party conventions and the general election, Gallup Poll results indicate.

A Gallup Poll examination of elections since 1936, when the Princeton, N.J., company began polling, indicates the average change between conventions and the election was 6.6 percentage points, the organization said Wednesday.

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The gap change between Labor Day and Election Day during 18 elections ranged from 1 percentage point to 20 percentage points, pollsters said. The gap change represents a comparison of the difference in the candidates' vote percentages around Labor Day and the difference in their final Election Day popular vote percentages.

Based on historical data, Gallup said the predicted gap change for the 2007 election was in the 6 percentage point-to-7 percentage point range.

In the previous 18 elections, the candidate who was ahead just after Labor Day more often than not won the general election, regardless of the changes, Gallup said.

As of Sept. 13-15 Gallup Daily Tracking results, the race is at a statistical tie with Republican candidate John McCain at 47 percent and Democratic candidate Barack Obama at 46 percent.

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