History says election landslide unlikely

WASHINGTON, Aug. 13 (UPI) -- Despite predictions that likely Democratic U.S. presidential nominee Barack Obama will win by a landslide, the historical markers aren't there, analysts say.

With some political handicappers pointing to low popularity marks for Republicans and other factors as evidence of a possible Obama landslide, his polling position doesn't equal those of past candidates who went on to post landslide victories, the Washington Web site Politico reported Wednesday.

Analysts told Politico that in five of the six post-World War II landslides (defined as a victory of 10 percentage points or more in the popular vote), the eventual winner was ahead by at least 10 percentage points at the end of August. That, however, hasn't been the case with Obama, D-Ill., whose lead over probable Republican Party opponent U.S. Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., has been 2-5 percentage points.

"There certainly was a definite cockiness that Democrats felt once they regained control of Congress, and I've also felt it was a misplaced cockiness," pollster John Zogby told Politico.

"There is a possibility of a blowout (this year)," added political analyst Charlie Cook. "But we won't know if it's going to happen until late … The key is that Obama hasn't closed the sale."