Indiana bellwether area closely watched

INDIANAPOLIS, May 6 (UPI) -- Voter trends in Delaware County, Ind., considered to be the bellwether of the state, were being observed as Hoosiers voted in the party primaries Tuesday.

If trends hold, Democratic hopeful Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York can probably notch a win, research by the Suffolk University Political Research Center indicated.

The Boston university's random selection of 361 likely Democratic households showed Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois 44 percent to 37 percent. Sixteen percent indicated they were either undecided or refused to respond.

The survey, conducted Sunday and Monday, has a 7 percent margin of error.

While bellwethers aren't designed to show actual margins, they have been accurate in predicting outcomes, the center said.

"We'll be watching how Delaware County fares in (Tuesday's) election," said David Paleologos, center director. "Historical election trends have put Delaware County in the Indiana spotlight. We'll know in a matter of hours whether this trend will continue in the 2008 election."

Paleologos said the last two times a non-incumbent presidential candidate was on the primary ballot in Delaware County, the area mirrored the statewide order of finish and was within 4 percent for the top three vote-getters in each major party.