Analysis: Iraq still key poll issue

WASHINGTON, Sept. 12 (UPI) -- The growing threats facing the United States around the world could play to either Republicans or Democrats in the next presidential election, the findings of a new UPI/Zogby poll indicate.

The new poll, conducted Sept. 7-10, found the American people regard Islamic radicalization and global warming as the two top issues facing the world today. It has a margin of error of 1.2 percentage points.

However, the poll also found that the war in Iraq and foreign policy were by far the two most important issues that Americans believed faced their own country. Some 42.1 percent believed this. Terrorism and security came next with 32.7 percent and immigration came third with 26.5 percent.

These findings ordinarily would have been welcomed by President Bush and Republican Party strategists. Ever since the presidency of Dwight D. Eisenhower half a century ago, the American public has consistently looked to Republicans to end wars, win them, prevent them and generally guard the nation's security. And the current Democrat-controlled 110th Congress has consistently received low approval ratings for its perceived failure to significantly and constructively influence administration policymaking on Iraq.

By contrast, the healthcare issue that so many Democrats have tried to prioritize ranks only fourth among national concerns. Only 21.9 percent ranked it among the two top issues facing the United States.

The news may also appear more welcome to Bush following the testimony of Gen. David Petraeus, the U.S. and coalition commander in Iraq, before a U.S. Senate committee Monday. Petraeus was relatively upbeat about developments in the war and on the positive effects of his surge policy in Baghdad over the past year. The news from Anbar province, where many local tribal sheiks are increasingly cooperating with U.S. forces against al-Qaida and other insurgent forces, has also been relatively good.

However, the war remains far from won with commissions and experts warning about the continued inability of the Iraqi government and Iraqi security forces to perform effectively on their own. Therefore, the importance the respondents in the poll placed on resolving the Iraq war could become a double-edged sword against the president and any Republican presidential nominee who vows to stay the course in Iraq in next year's election.

Petraeus said he was in favor of some draw-down of U.S. forces in Iraq, but he stressed the importance of keeping large numbers there for the foreseeable future. If U.S. casualties continue at their current rate or higher, that policy, the poll indicates, could become an albatross around the GOP's neck next year.

Crime, drugs and violence rated low among the respondents' concerns. Only 3.9 percent put those issues among their top two. Nor did the U.S. budget deficit rate particularly highly, though three times as many respondents ranked it among their top two issues as they did crime and violence. The budget deficit was a "top two" issue for just 10.5 percent of those polled.

The latest UPI/Zogby poll therefore was disappointing news for the Democrats and had mixed results for the Republicans. It confirmed that the Democrats have failed to make any political mileage out of the administration's failures in Iraq, and carried the possibility that if conditions there significantly improve, the GOP will be the beneficiaries.

But if Iraq continues at its current levels of violence, or gets far worse, without any notable improvement in conditions there, or lessening of the rate of U.S. causalities, then the Republicans could prove highly vulnerable to a backlash in next year's presidential and congressional elections.