Cook says Bush bouncing in toss up states

WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 (UPI) -- National Journal contributing editor Charlie Cook says President Bush's resurgence in toss up states helped him take the lead from Sen. John F. Kerry.

Cook, a noted election handicapper, points to the RealClearPolitics Poll Average of national polls showing Bush "with a 6.5-point advantage in a three-way race over Kerry."

"The average was 3.6 points in a two-way, Bush-Kerry trial heat," Cook wrote Tuesday of post-GOP convention national polling. "Privately, sources in both campaigns and the pro-Democratic 527's say the Bush lead is about 5 points."

The surge may be most visible in the toss-up states -- Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania among the mega-states, along with Iowa, Minnesota Missouri and Wisconsin in the Midwest, Nevada and New Mexico in the Southwest and New Hampshire.

"In the 10 states that we were calling 'toss ups,' one, Missouri, has moved into the Lean Bush category," while the others remain too close to call, Cook said. "It is fairly safe to say that in most cases, we've gone from Kerry running a couple points ahead in most of these states to Bush a couple of points ahead.

Pennsylvania, for example, had been a borderline case a month ago, leaning slightly toward Kerry. Now it's a toss up, Cook said.

"The president needs only 48 (44 percent) out of the 109 electoral votes in the toss up column, while Kerry needs 63 (58 percent) out of those up-for-grab votes," Cook said.