UPI's Capital Comment for Dec. 3, 2002

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 (UPI) -- Capital Comment -- Daily news notes, political rumors, and important events that shape politics and public policy in Washington and the world from United Press International.

One, two switcheroo

On the heels of the GOP's strong showing in the November 2002 elections, Mississippi's Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck has changed parties. Only the second woman in Mississippi elected to statewide office, Tuck now becomes the second Republican to hold the office of lieutenant governor.

Tuck was elected as a Democrat in 1999 but, at a Monday afternoon news conference where she was joined by Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott and other prominent Mississippi Republicans, she announced she was changing her party affiliation to the GOP.

"Lt. Gov. Amy Tuck has been a strong and thoughtful leader for the people of Mississippi. Her decision to join the Republican Party is more good news for the GOP, but it is even better news for the people of Mississippi who benefit directly from her work on their behalf," Marc Racicot, the Republican National Committee chairman, said. "Ms. Tuck's compassionate conservative values are at home with the Republican Party of George W. Bush. On behalf of Republicans throughout the country I am proud and honored to welcome Ms. Tuck to the party."

The state's governor, Ronnie Musgrove, remains a Democrat. In Mississippi, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected separately and do not necessarily campaign on the same ticket. Tuck is the latest of hundreds of elected Democrats in the South to change parties to the GOP since Bill Clinton was elected in 1992. During his 8 years in the White House, elected officials in the South changed parties at a rate of close to one per week.

Quick Watson -- The game is afoot

Several media polls released over the past week show Democrat Mary Landrieu running well ahead of Republican Suzie Terrell in Saturday's runoff for the U.S. Senate seat Landrieu holds. A recent Southern Media poll of 600 registered voters had Landrieu up 50 percent to 34 percent. A Renwick poll for WWL-TV, also of 600 registered voters, had Landrieu up 45 percent to 31 percent. But, as is so often true, things are not always what they seem. Both polls were reportedly weighted to increase the percentage of black voters in the sample to a level equal or close to the voter registration figures. In the Southern Media poll, the sample was weighted to reflect the state's 28 percent black voter registration.

There are several problems with the methodology, least of which is the reliance on registered voters in the sample. Though registered voters can vote, it does not mean that they will vote. In a runoff election, where participation is usually down substantially from where it was on Election Day, the likely voter number -- which is based on behavior rather than standing -- is a much more reliable number. When the WWL poll was similarly adjusted to show black participation at 25 percent -- which some analysts say is a historically reliable percentage -- Terrell, who will be spending the week campaigning with a host of GOP VIPs including Bush 41 on Monday, jumps to a 51 percent.

Count some of the votes because all of the votes count

The one race still outstanding in the Maine state senate looks like it may be tilting to the Democrats, allowing them to retain control of the chamber. Outgoing Gov. Angus King, a liberal independent, has proclaimed Democrat Chris Hall to be the winner over Republican Leslie Fossel. The two candidates are nine votes apart: 8,893 for the Democrat; 8,884 for the Republican with 44 disputed ballots still to be counted.

Mullings.com's Rich Galen described the nature of these disputed ballots thusly: "There are 11 ballots which were marked in blue or black pen, rather than in the required pencil. There is no other dispute over these ballots. They break for the Republican 8-3. Ballots which were marked with RED pen -- but which broke evenly -- were allowed." The other disputed ballots, which the Democrats would be demanding be counted -- "Count all the votes because every vote counts" -- if this were Tallahassee, Fla., and not Portland, Maine, have been set aside because of similar issues. Whether they eventually will be counted is something the state senate itself will decide -- but the betting is that they won't because, though uncounted, they have been examined and their inclusion would tilt the outcome to Fossel, giving the GOP control of the chamber.

In

In Kentucky, GOP U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher says he's running for governor in 2003, the party's best shot in some years. Fletcher will run with former U.S. Sen. Mitch McConnell chief of staff, Hunter Bates, as his running mate. Bates was recently thought to have been McConnell's choice to run against Democrat Ken Lucas in the state's 4th Congressional District in 2004. Other Republicans looking at entering the race for governor include State Rep. Steve Nunn, the son of former GOP Gov. Louie Nunn, and Rebecca Jackson, the Jefferson County Judge-Executive.

On the Democrat side, state Attorney General Ben Chandler, scion of the state's legendary political dynasty, is said to be readying a formal announcement.

Personnel notes

Jay Timmons, a longtime aide to Virginia's George Allen, has been named the new executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Timmons, Allen's chief of staff in the U.S. Senate, was also chief of staff during his term as governor ... Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., is stepping down as head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "to pay more attention to her congressional duties." Final word on her replacement is not set but the pressure is on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., to name Louisiana Rep. William Jefferson to head the committee.

Got a Capital Comment? E-mail CapComm@UPI.com.