Pundits and politicians performing the arcane calculus of political power were trying to determine whether a near non-stop campaign blitz by a popular president would translate into a GOP edge in the next Congress before Minnesota Sen. Paul Wellstone was killed in a plane crash.
Wellstone's untimely death Friday morning with his wife, their daughter and five others makes the equation harder to fathom. Democrats held a 50-49 vote edge in the Senate, with Vermont's Jim Jeffords the lone Senate independent.
Before the tragic crash 11 days before the Nov. 5 general election, many voters appeared too preoccupied about terrorism, Iraq, crazed snipers, jobs and other kitchen table issues to worry much about an election.
Democrats hoped to make prescription drug coverage for seniors and the lagging economic recovery resonate as national issues but events overshadowed domestic politics until two sniper suspects were captured in the Washington area last week.
The death of the liberal Wellstone, a 58-year-old former activist and college political science professor seeking his third term, put the limelight back on politics. The political marathon that has become a typical election cycle now is more a seven-day sprint to the ballot box.
Several Senate races are so close strategists are handicapping into the homestretch in seven or eight contests.
President George W. Bush returned to Colorado Monday to beat the drum for Sen. Wayne Allard, who is in a tight race with Democrat Tom Strickland.
The president's appearance at a Republican fundraiser in Denver in late September raised around $1.6 million for several candidates and Bush raised $1 million for Allard and Gov. Bill Owens during a stopover last year. Now the focus is on getting out the vote.
While the president is not on any ballot this fall, off-year elections are vital to his ability to make his tax cut permanent, push through judicial nominations, enact his homeland security program and possibly seek re-election in 2004.
The party in the White House increased its numbers in Congress just three times in non-presidential year elections in the last century. With a better than average midterm job approval rating above 60 percent, Bush is pushing hard to defy the odds.
Andy Busch, associate professor of political science at University of Denver, said there are three possible effects of Bush's campaigning.
"One of them is that it helps to energize the Republican base. In any election this is important, but in mid-term elections I think its particularly important because turnout tends to be lower. In the end, races are decided by who is motivated enough to get out.
"The second thing is the local media coverage is dominated by it for two or three days. This sort of coverage is very positive for the candidate the president's trying to help. In Sen. Allard's case, he gets some free media that will be generally positive.
"The third thing that could happen in a state like Colorado where President Bush is very popular is it could sway some of the undecided voters, probably not a huge number. In any endorsement of any sort, especially when it's a Republican president endorsing a Republican senator, unaffiliated or undecided voters are not necessarily going to be swayed by that in large numbers but it could have a marginal effect that's positive and in a close race be the difference. It's not going to shift the undecided vote by 10 or 20 percent or anything like that but if he picked up a gain of 3 or 4 percent it could be hugely important."
Allard led Strickland 41 percent to 37 percent in a Denver Post/Ciruli Associates poll of 400 likely voters queried Oct. 19-22 and released Thursday. He gained 1 percent since the last Denver Post poll but 19 percent were undecided and Allard's lead was within the poll's 4.9 percent margin of error. A Rocky Mountain News/News4 poll of 501 likely voters conducted Ot. 22-24 had Strickland ahead 39 percent to 38 percent with 23 percent undecided, a statistical tie well within the poll's 4.4 percent margin of error.
Missouri's Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan, one of the most vulnerable incumbents, was running neck-and-neck with former Rep. Jim Talent in a special election for a four-year term. Carnahan was appointed to the Senate after her late husband, Gov. Mel Carnahan, was elected posthumously. Her husband and son were killed in a plane crash three weeks before the 2000 election.
The crash that killed Gov. Carnahan mirrored the Wellstone tragedy. State party officials begged Mrs. Carnahan to take the seat and the Democratic governor appointed her.
Succession is more complicated in Minnesota, where maverick independent Jesse Ventura is governor. He could appoint anyone he wants to serve the remainder of Wellstone's term for a lame-duck session of the 107th Congress, which ends in January. Ventura told reporters Friday he won't name himself and would probably choose a Democrat since Wellstone was a Democrat.
The winner of next Tuesday's election may be appointed to get a leg up on seniority for the state. Reports during the weekend said Wellstone's two surviving sons had asked former Vice President Walter "Fritz" Mondale, a Minnesota liberal in the tradition of Hubert H. Humphrey, to run in their father's place.
Mondale, 74, served 12 years in the Senate, was appointed U.S. ambassador to Japan and is well-known and respected as an elder statesman by the people of his home state. An emotional weeklong mini-campaign could energize a larger than anticipated turnout of sympathetic Democratic voters.
Mondale was maintaining a low profile as Republicans sniped at him. A decision was expected after memorial services for Wellstone Tuesday evening at the University of Minnesota. Former President Bill Clinton is expected to attend.
State Democratic Party leaders said they considered Mondale their ideal fill-in candidate.
Wellstone, who risked re-election by voting against an Iraq war resolution, began rising in the polls after his opposition vote to military intervention to topple Saddam Hussein.
Bush had planned one more trip to Minnesota to campaign with Coleman but Coleman temporarily halted his campaign after Wellstone's death.
Other Senate races considered wide open or "too close to call" include South Dakota, where incumbent Democrat Tim Johnson is battling Republican John Thune, who was handpicked by Bush.
Thune's tough attack ads using Iraqi President Saddam Hussein have resembled regular programming on South Dakota television for more than a month and Democrats sense desperation.
"We're going to win," said Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., assessing the race Sunday on CBS-TV's "Meet The Press." "The last polling that we've seen over the last several days indicated Tim is opening up a little bit of a lead."
Daschle said he feels the deciding issue in his home state race will be maintaining Democratic control of the Senate in the 108th Congress.
"Never before have you had a member of the appropriations committee, a member of the finance committee and the Democratic leader of the Senate -- who happens to be now the majority leader -- all working together for the interests or our state. I can't think of a more powerful combination than that and I think that at the end that is what the people of South Dakota are going to think is the difference," he said.
Daschle said he thinks Democrats will win in Texas and in one of the Carolinas. Former Clinton White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles was in a tight race with former presidential hopeful Elizabeth Dole for the seat of retiring North Carolina Sen. Jesse Helms and in South Carolina Democrat Alex Sanders, a folksy lawyer and educator, was battling Lindsay Graham to succeed 99-year-old Republican "Grand Old Man" Strom Thurmond, who is retiring after 54 years in Congress.
In Texas, Republican Attorney General John Cornyn led former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk in a close race to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Phil Graham.
With stakes so high after the 2000 election debacle, both parties planned to mobilize poll watchers in contests where a few votes could make the difference. Former New Jersey Sen. Frank Lautenberg had a 9-point lead over Republican businessman Doug Forrester, who was tabbed by President Bush to oppose Sen. Bob Torricelli. Forrester had a 13-point lead in the polls when Torricelli dropped out Sept. 30 because of ethics questions. Democrats put the 78-year-old warhorse Lautenberg on the ballot in Torricelli's place.
In Arkansas, Republican Sen. Tim Hutchinson was in a dead heat with Democratic state Attorney General Mark Pryor. New Hampshire Gov. Jeanne Shaheen was battling Republican Rep. John Sununu, son of Ronald Reagan's White House chief of staff and had cut his lead in the polls to just 2 points.
The race between ex-Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander and Democratic Rep. Bob Clement showed the former secretary of education leading Clement 50 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent undecided in a Mason-Dixon poll of 625 likely voters Oct. 21-23. The poll had an error rate of 4 percent. But a survey by WBIR-TV/Survey USA released last Wednesday had the race much closer.
If the Senate splits by the current tight margin, control could hinge on the outcome of the Louisiana race. Democratic Sen. Mary L. Landrieu leads in the polls but must win 50 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate race to avoid a runoff of the two top vote-getters Dec. 7 -- a nightmare scenario that could leave the balance of the Senate undecided until then.
Incumbents had the edge in most House races.
Republicans control 223 of the 435 seats in the U.S. House going into Nov. 5. There were two independents and three vacant seats. Democrats needed a net gain of six seats in about 20 hotly contested races to take control.
"There aren't that many seats that are really contested at this point," said Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., in a television interview Sunday. "We think we have a better chance to pick up six seats than to lose six seats."
Democrats had their best shot of taking key governor's races.
Of the 36 governors mansions up for grabs in the midterm election only 16 incumbents were seeking re-election. The current political map has Republican governors in 27 states, Democrats in 21 and two independents.
Democrats had a good chance of defeating the incumbent party in open races in Illinois, Michigan, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. Republicans were seen likely to wrest statehouses from Democratic control in Arkansas, New Hampshire and Hawaii.
Incumbent Republican governors were considered safe in Ohio, Idaho, Nebraska, Colorado and Nevada.
