Quebec seems poised for another quiet revolution, this one reversing the one that occurred 30 years ago and brought into existence a provincial government that sought to separate the French-speaking region from the rest of Canada.
Recent public opinion polls show the upstart Action Democratique du Quebec party holding a substantial lead over the incumbent Parti Quebecois. An election must be held in Quebec next year though Premier Bernard Landry has not yet set a date for it.
The ADQ is led by Mario Dumont, who himself has experienced a reversal of attitude. He is remembered by many in Quebec for the leadership he gave to the pro-sovereignty "Yes" side in the 1995 referendum in which the separatists failed by less than 1 percent to gain approval of a proposal that would have started the separation procedure.
Dumont was a member of the provincial Liberal Party at the time. He now campaigns on a platform that sounds much like the one former Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's Progressive-Conservative Party instituted in Ottawa. He says his government would slash government bureaucracy, cut taxes and favor privatization.
And he says there will be no more referendums on the question of sovereignty.
The shift in public attitude has been developing slowly for the last decade. In a way, it results from the success the PQ has had in gaining some sort of recognition on the federal scene. Economically, Quebec has been experiencing greater strength than has most of the rest of Canada, building on the reforms it brought to the education system. Before the 1960s revolution, there were few opportunities for French-speaking citizens. Now there is a considerable pool of skilled workers in the province and that has attracted investment in new industries with higher wages.
The combination of economic success and increased recognition has led the younger generation to believe little more would be gained by separation from the rest of Canada. And it is that new generation that looks on Dumont as a leader for the future. Dumont is just 32 years old, which means he was born about the time the previous generation was mounting the separation movement.
All this does not mean the sovereignty movement is dead. It still has life and strength in the rural areas of Quebec where the French language still dominates the day-to-day business and economic opportunities still are limited. Farmers in those regions are less inclined to favor deep cuts in government budgets because they know the prices they get for their commodities are often supported by government programs.
The Quebec election will come about a year before Canadians will elect a new federal government. If Dumont wins in 2003, the Liberal Party undoubtedly will point to that turn of sentiment as "proof" its policies have succeeded in keeping Canada united.
Prime Minister Jean Chretien has announced he will resign in early 2004. The Liberal Party will choose a new leader and it is expected former finance minister Paul Martin will succeed and finally get his chance to form a government.
