Elections 2002: Minn govs make nice

(Part of UPI's Special Report on Election 2002)

ST. PAUL, Minn. (UPI) -- After months of rubber chicken dinners, meetings with ethnic groups and community organizations and public events and parades, the three candidates for Minnesota governor remain in a dead heat.

Some blame the social convention known in the northern Midwest as "Minnesota nice," a near pathological desire for politeness (you betcha) for the lack of campaign excitement. All three men -- Independence party candidate Tim Penny, Democratic-Farmers-Labor candidate Roger Moe and Republican Tim Pawlenty -- agree the state's projected $3 billion budget shortfall will force spending cuts but nobody wants to be specific about what to axe.

"They can't push each other," said William Flanigan, professor of political science at the University of Minnesota. "They're three pretty nice people. They're not going to campaign viciously."

A statewide poll of 625 registered votes conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., a Washington-based research firm, found Penny with 30 percent, Pawlenty with 28 percent and Moe with 27 percent -- a statistical tie. Green Party candidate Ken Pentel polled just 3 percent. A telephone survey of 503 registered voters for KSTP-TV, St. Paul, conducted Oct. 11-12, found 34 percent favor Independence Party candidate Tim Penny to 30 percent for Democrat Farm Labor nominee Roger Moe. Republican Tim Pawlenty had 23 percent and Green Party candidate Ken Pentel 3 percent, with 10 percent undecided. The poll had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

The latest MSNBC/Zogby poll of 500 likely voters Oct. 9-11 gave Pawlenty 30 percent, Penny 27 percent and Moe 25 percent, with 16 percent of voters still undecided. The poll had an error rate of 4.5 percentage points.

Late in September, Penny challenged outgoing Gov. Jesse Ventura to release state budget figures early but that didn't happen. The state Finance Committee projected a more than $3 billion deficit a month before the election.

Demographically little has changed in the state, which once produced Democratic stalwarts like Walter Mondale and Hubert Humphrey. Many pundits believe Ventura's election was a quirk -- that the state's instant registration allowed rebellious voters 18 and 19 to turn out in droves to vote in the popular one-time wrestler who was running on Ross Perot's Reform Party ticket.

Ventura likes Penny, a former U.S. congressman (1983-94) but is being a maverick to the end. Word is Ventura played golf on primary election day saying he was too busy to vote.

He has warned residents the state will have to deal with the huge budget deficit. In most states candidates would be in full attack mode with budget plans and counter-attacks, but not in Minnesota.

Everybody knows voters don't like tax hikes.

"I don't know their debates have been particularly well-attended by the broader public," said Flanigan. "They haven't made much news."

Penny proposed a mix of tax hikes and program cuts to close the deficit, saying, "Everything is on the table." He said school districts could reduce testing to save money and the state could let school boards hike property taxes for operating expenses without levy approval.

Penny wrote a book in 1998, titled "The 15 Biggest Lies In Politics," and teaches a class called "Campaigns and Elections" Monday nights to 30 students at Metropolitan State University.

Republican Pawlenty has signed a pledge to veto tax increases of any kind and said he would "squeeze government" to make it leaner by trimming overhead and bureaucracy. As Republican House Majority Leader Pawlenty called for cutting funding for some social services and encouraging charities and non-profits to help more.

Human services took a big cut in the House budget bill last session.

Moe, an advocate of early childhood education, said with the recovery stalled, this is not the time for deep cuts in social programs. He, like Penny, supports a 5-cent-a-gallon hike in the current 20-cent gasoline tax, but called tax increases a last resort. The gas tax was last raised in 1988.

Minnesota voters concerned about post-recession bread and butter issues -- like employment, affordable housing, subsidized childcare and the state's social safety net -- are awaiting specifics from the candidates.

The next governor also will have to deal with the consequences of the five-year limit on welfare benefits enacted in the 1997 reforms.

"I think voters deserve to know what services are on the chopping block," said Ventura, whose proposals for tax hikes on cigarettes and gasoline were rejected last winter.

Some 80 percent of Minnesota's human services budget is for bedrock health care programs like Medicaid, nursing homes and care for the disabled that would be difficult to cut.

If the fuzziness of the three candidates is any indicator, Flanigan said, state politics may be pretty boring without Ventura, a U.S. Navy Seal-turned-professional wrestler-radio talk show personality and one-term governor.

"He was a bizarre governor in some ways, some obvious ways, but as a matter of fact he had a very good staff, as good as any governor in the history of the state," said Flanigan.

(Reported by Al Swanson, UPI political writer, Chicago)