Top issues for the next 50 years

WASHINGTON, Jan. 28 (UPI) -- Academics believe arms control and disarmament is the most important issue facing the U.S. government in the next 50 years, a new Brookings Instituion survey says.

The next four most important issues for government, respondents say, are:

- expanding and protecting the right to vote;

- increasing health care access for low-income Americans;

- improving air quality;

- promoting financial security in retirement.

The report, "Government's Greatest Priorities of the Next Half Century," was written by Paul Light, vice president and director of the governmental studies program at Brookings. Light previously ranked the government's 50 greatest endeavors in the last half century.

Some 550 university historians, economists, political scientists and sociologists were asked to choose which issues they think will be most important in the next 50 years.

Other think tank experts found the "Top Five" list surprising.

Survey results don't reflect American public opinion, for example, said Adrian Moore, executive director of the California-based libertarian Reason Public Policy Institute.

"If I was going to find out what the government should be doing and what are the next challenges the government should take on, I would want to ask people -- taxpayers, citizens, the people who the government is trying to serve," said Moore. "Light asks university professors. There are a lot of signs in this study of how out of touch those university professors are.

"The No. 1 issue for the future that these guys come up with is arms control. Well, arms control was really big in the 1960s and 1970s, but it's been a long time since I have had a conversation with anyone about arms control -- this is not something that people are concerned about right now."

Other think tanks agree with Moore.

"I think that they really missed the boat," said John C. Goodman, president of The National Center of Policy Analysis, a conservative think tank based in Dallas. "On the economics side, the single biggest problem facing all developed countries in the world today is the burden of elderly entitlement spending, and it's going to bankrupt every developed country if they don't do something about it."

Goodman said the government's single greatest priority over the next half century should be to reform Social Security and Medicare. "The government will not be able by mid-century to raise the taxes necessary to meet the promises it's now making to young people entering the workforce."

Moore and Goodman also questioned Light's decision to survey a limited group of university professors. Light says that his choice of sample group was deliberate.

"This is definitely not a representative sample of Americans -- there's no hiding that and we're upfront with that," said Light. "You're getting a particular view of what academics think here."

The study is also honest about the political leanings of the survey group.

Some 58 percent of the respondents identified themselves as liberals, and 77 percent of the group said that they were Democrats.

Ron Utt, senior research fellow at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, says that he was surprised that respondents to the survey determined that giving more responsibility to the states, reducing illegal drug use, supporting veterans, expanding home ownership and stabilizing agricultural products were the five least important issues to continue pursuing for the next five decades.

"It's striking to me to see what I call the decline in traditional liberal issues -- that is an emphasis on issues that would be important to lower income people," Utt said.

"Develop and renew impoverished communities, reduce crime, reduce dependency, expand job training, expand home ownership -- these are traditional liberal issues and they fall fairly far down on the survey and are being replaced by middle class quality-of-life issues."

Chris Pieper, communications director for the Texas-based Center for Public Policy Priorities, agreed. He said the survey results exemplify an "ivory tower point of view," and was concerned with the survey group's lack of interest in lower-income issues.

"As a group that works on anti-poverty issues, we have to point out that welfare reform is hardly regarded as a success across the board. First, what is success? Lower caseloads? Fewer people in poverty? It's difficult to discern how much of the success of welfare reform had to do with the law or the unprecedented period of economic growth that coincided with it."

Other left-of-center groups questioned the choices of the survey group. David Callahan, director of research at the Demos think tank in New York said he is concerned about the survey group's apathy. He said the government needs to be more ambitious in the next half century.

"A strong federal role is critically needed to address new economic inequities that have arisen in American society over the past 30 years as our nation has moved from the industrial era to the information age," said Callahan. "Only the federal government has the resources to help all Americans share in the opportunities of the new economy."

Callahan said he believes some of the most important issues for the next half-century will be improving the public school system and improving conditions for low-wage workers.

"We need a far more activist government in the next 50 years," he says, "but one that fundamentally reinvents the way it functions -- becoming a truly dynamic instrument of America's collective spirit to make a better society."

Light continued to defend his choice of university educators for the report's survey group.

"We wanted to take a look at a group of people who we felt knew enough about public policy to make some judgment calls," Light said. "This is a portrait of the future that they would want to see occur. Whether it will be the future we do not know."

Moore said he cannot decide whether or not opinions of professors will have any influence over the future of public policy.

"This study tells you what these university professors probably focus on in their teaching. To some extent students are learning about these priorities as they are held by the professors, but how much influence that has over their opinions I don't know," Moore said.

Light said the government has been mostly moving forward for the past 200 years. But strong leadership will insure that the American government maintains its momentum, he added.

"It is not yet clear which future will emerge from the current crisis," said Light. "What is clear is that future success demands strong, bipartisan leadership from both Congress and presidents, and public tolerance for the small steps that eventually add up to great impact."