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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints: prediction, preview, pick to win

By The Sports Xchange
New Orleans Saints fans dressed as pink Popes cheer on their team during the game with the Carolina Panthers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans October 16, 2016. Photo by AJ Sisco/UPI
New Orleans Saints fans dressed as pink Popes cheer on their team during the game with the Carolina Panthers at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans October 16, 2016. Photo by AJ Sisco/UPI | License Photo

KICKOFF:

Saturday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Superdome. TV: FOX, Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.

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SERIES HISTORY:

50th regular-season meeting. Saints lead series, 30-19. After the Saints won seven consecutive games in the series from 2011 to 2014, sweeping the season series in 2012-14, the Bucs have won two of the last three matchups. They ended the Saints' run with a 26-19 victory in Week 2 a year ago and won the first game this season, 16-11, on Dec. 11 in Tampa. The Saints have won four of the last five games at the MercedesBenz Superdome, the site of Saturday's game, and are 6-4 at home against the Bucs since Sean Payton took over in 2006. This is the 50th game in a series that started on Dec. 11, 1977, with the Bucs claiming the franchise's first regular-season win after 26 losses with a stunning 33-14 win at the Superdome.

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KEYS TO THE GAME:

Tampa Bay can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses by Green Bay, Detroit and Washington.

Playing the same team twice in 13 days is unusual. With so much on the line for the Bucs, who won the first meeting 16-11, it's also dangerous.

The temptation of any winning team is to repeat the game plan. But you know the Saints will make adjustments and defensive coordinator Mike Smith knows he has to throw some new wrinkles at Drew Brees.

The problem is that the Bucs will be playing the chess match against new pieces. Center Max Unger is back, which means the Bucs may not be as successful pressuring Brees using only a four-man rush.

The Saints also will have rookie Michael Thomas back, meaning the Bucs' secondary will be stretched thin trying to cover him and Brandin Cooks.

The Saints' offense will be on a mission after picking up just 294 yards in the Week 14 loss to the Bucs. Brees completed 25 of 41 throws for 257 yards and three interceptions and was sacked once as the Saints had all kinds of trouble trying to get anything going and failed to get the ball in the end zone.

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Defensively, the Saints turned in a remarkable performance against the Bucs that went to waste. The Saints allowed just 270 yards and one touchdown, limiting Jameis Winston to 16 completions in 26 attempts for 184 yards and sacking him twice while bringing heavy pressure most of the day. The key will be in doing a good job on wide receiver Mike Evans and getting enough of a pass rush on Winston to make him uncomfortable in the pocket and potentially hurry his throws.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Saints QB Drew Brees vs. Bucs secondary. Brees was seeing red after the Bucs intercepted him three times, including a final one by safety Keith Tandy with 51 seconds to play near midfield when the Saints were desperately trying to pull out a victory with a touchdown. Brees bounced back from a subpar performance in which he completed just 25 of 41 passes for 257 yards by torching the NFL's second-ranked pass defense in a win over the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, so he'll be looking to make the Bucs pay as well for his miserable day two weeks ago.

--Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Saints CB Sterling Moore. In their first meeting two weeks ago, Moore held Evans to 42 yards on four receptions. Moore stayed stride-for-stride with Evans on one throw into the end zone and broke perfectly on the ball to knock it away. Moore, a former Bucs player, will have his work cut out for him again, with Evans trying to add to his season totals of 84 catches for 1,159 yards and 10 touchdowns.

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FRIDAY INJURY REPORT

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

--Out: T Gosder Cherilus (groin, ankle), T Demar Dotson (concussion), DE William Gholston (elbow)

--Questionable: DT Gerald McCoy (foot)

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

--Out: CB Delvin Breaux (shoulder)

--Questionable: LB Dannell Ellerbe (foot), RB John Kuhn (hip), LB Craig Robertson (shoulder), C Max Unger (foot)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Saints CB B.W. Webb. A four-year veteran who previously played with the Tennessee Titans, Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys, Webb has been a big help to the Saints' banged-up secondary since being signed after Week 1. With Delvoin Breaux missing eight games and P.J. Williams going down for the season in Week 2, Webb has played in 12 games, with five starts, and leads the Saints with 13 passes defended. He has one interception and 23 tackles and has been active against the run as well.

FAST FACTS:

Bucs QB Jameis Winston has eight TD passes and just one interception in the past four division games.

Bucs RB Doug Martin has scored a rushing TD in the past two meetings and has averaged 99.2 scrimmage yards in the past six.

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WR Mike Evans is tied for second in the NFC with 10 receiving TDs and ranks third with 84 receptions. In his past three road games vs. the NFC South, he has 15 receptions for 287 yards and two TDs.

Saints QB Drew Brees threw for 389 yards and four TDs last week. He leads the NFL with 4,559 yards and 34 TDs. In his past 10 home games vs. Tampa, he has 2,719 passing yards, 21 TDs and seven interceptions.

Saints WR Brandin Cooks has 11 TD catches in his past 11 home games. He had career-high 186 yards and scored twice in Week 15.

Saints WR Michael Thomas leads NFL rookies in receptions (76), yards (883) and TD catches (eight). He has caught a TD pass in two of three games vs. the NFC South.

PREDICTION:

The Bucs are fighting hard to get into the postseason, but Brees and the Saints have something to prove in front of the home crowd and the Bucs' offense probably can't keep up.

OUR PICK: Saints, 24-17.

--Chris Cluff

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