Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium. TV: ESPN, Sean McDonough, Jon Gruden, Lisa Salters.

SERIES HISTORY: 9th regular-season meeting. New England leads the all-time series, 6-2. As annual division leaders and playoff teams, the Patriots and Ravens have become heated AFC rivals in recent years. The teams have split four playoff battles since January 2010, all in Foxborough, with the winner advancing to the Super Bowl three times. The last meeting was New England's impressive comeback for the 35-31 victory in January 2015, twice fighting back form 14-point deficits on the way to an eventual Lombardi Trophy. The last regular-season battle was a 41-7 blowout by New England in Baltimore. Since John Harbaugh took over the Ravens in 2008, five of the eight battles in the series have been decided by one score.

GAMEDATE: 12/12/16

KEYS TO THE GAME:

The Patriots are looking to find a comfort zone without Rob Gronkowski, out for the season with a back injury. Tom Brady has often turned to the big tight end in big games in the past, but that won't be an option.

Even though LeGarrette Blount is having a career year, it's unlikely the big back will be a big part of the offensive game plan against the NFL's No. 1 rush defense, a Baltimore front that allows just 3.4 yards per carry. Instead it wouldn't be crazy to think Josh McDaniels will utilize more spread type sets and go at the Ravens through the air. That could include some split-back looks with receiving backs James White and Dion Lewis to put stress on the Baltimore linebackers and safeties. Quick throws to avoid pressure, the screen game and getting Martellus Bennett more involved will likely all be aspects of the offensive approach in what is expected to be a dogfight with Baltimore.

The Patriots' defense will need to find a way to put some pressure on Joe Flacco. Last week, New England used more blitzes against Rams rookie QB Jared Goff, but such an aggressive approach is less likely against a veteran quarterback with a varied cast of playmakers.

The Patriots' front instead will look to stop the run early, an obvious secondary aspect of the Ravens' offense. From there, Matt Patricia likely will throw a lot of different looks -- man and zone -- at Flacco from snap to snap.

Baltimore's offense finally had a breakout game last week against the Dolphins, amassing 496 yards. That might be hard to duplicate on the road against the Patriots, who are ranked ninth in the NFL in total defense. Flacco wants to be more aggressive and take shots downfield. Baltimore, however, will need an effective running attack to keep Tom Brady and the Patriots' offense off the field. Last week against the Dolphins, the Ravens attempted 47 passes and ran just 20 times in a 38-6 victory. That ratio will likely need to be more even to have success against New England.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Patriots LT Nate Solder vs. Ravens OLB Terrell Suggs. New England's pass protection has been suspect and that will be tested by a formidable Ravens front. Solder has been solid as a run blocker in 2016, but the former first-round pick has been inconsistent protecting Tom Brady's blind side. Suggs has been his usual disruptive self, leading the Ravens with eight sacks and three forced fumbles. Solder's matchup with the Ravens' all-time sack leader will be a key battle in the trenches.

--Ravens QB Joe Flacco vs. Patriots S Devin McCourty. McCourty is the Pro Bowl leader of the back end in New England, ensured with the group's varied coverages being communicated and executed. Flacco has heated up over the last month and is doing an impressive job spreading the ball around to his various weapons. McCourty will be tasked with getting the Patriots lined up to defend tight end Dennis Pitta and wide receivers Steve Smith Sr., Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Kamar Aiken, all of whom have made key plays in recent games.

INJURY REPORT (Updated: Mon. Dec. 12 at 4:30pm)

BALTIMORE RAVENS

--Out: RB Lorenzo Taliaferro (thigh), TE Crockett Gillmore (thigh)

--Doubtful: G Alex Lewis (ankle)

--Questionable: G Marshal Yanda (shoulder)

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

--Out: WR Danny Amendola (ankle)

--Questionable: TE Martellus Bennett (ankle/shoulder), LB Elandon Roberts (hamstring), CB Eric Rowe (hamstring), WR Matt Slater (foot), S Jordan Richards (knee)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Patriots TE Martellus Bennett. After joining the Patriots via trade to serve as a dynamic combination with Rob Gronkowski, the veteran will now be expected to help fill the void after the latter was placed on injured reserve with a back injury. Bennett, though, has been dealing with his own ankle injury since early October and his production has been essentially nonexistent over the last three games -- six catches for 40 yards. He hasn't reached the end zone since Oct. 9 in Cleveland. Bennett is going to be expected to get healthy and pick up the production down the stretch in New England.

FAST FACTS:

The Ravens' .644 winning percentage (47-26) in December under coach John Harbaugh is the third-best mark in the NFL.

Ravens QB Joe Flacco passed for 381 yards and four TDs last week. He's the only QB in Ravens history with two games of 300 yards and four TDs.

Baltimore WR Steve Smith Sr. has 145 receiving yards and a TD in his past two games vs. New England. He ranks 13th in NFL history with 1,015 catches.

Baltimore WR Mike Wallace aims for his fourth straight game vs. New England with a TD catch. He has averaged 89.5 receiving yards in the past six meetings, with five TDs.

Baltimore LB Terrell Suggs has three sacks, four tackles for loss and a forced fumble in the past three games vs. the Patriots.

New England QB Tom Brady has 201 wins, the most in NFL history. In eight games this season, he has thrown for 2,470 yards (308.8 per game) and 19 TDs, with just one interception.

Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount leads the NFL with 13 rushing TDs. He has eight in his past six home games.

PREDICTION:

The Ravens have won four home games in the past five weeks, but can they win on the road against a Patriots team that has lost only twice this season?

OUR PICK: Patriots, 24-21.

--Chris Cluff