Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, New Era Field. TV: CBS, Jim Nantz, Phil Simms, Tracy Wolfson.

SERIES HISTORY: 22nd regular-season meeting. Steelers lead series, 13-8. The last time the Steelers played in Buffalo, they pulled out a 19-16 overtime victory, a game remembered in Buffalo for a dropped pass in the end zone by a wide-open Stevie Johnson that would have given the win to the Bills, and then Johnson asking God why he let Johnson down like that. Pittsburgh won the last meeting, in 2013 at Heinz Field, 23-10.

GAMEDATE: 12/11/16

KEYS TO THE GAME:

After three consecutive wins, the Steelers are in contention for the AFC North division title and a playoff berth. One reason for the late-season turnaround is a stingy defense. They are only 19th in the league against the pass and 14th in total defense, but seventh in the most important stat, points allowed, at 19.7 per game.

Unlike the struggling Bills, the Steelers control their path to the playoffs. If they win their remaining four games, they are in.

The Steelers' No. 1 task this Sunday will be stopping the Bills' running game, which leads the league with 162 yards per game after registering 212 last week against Oakland. That infantry is led by LeSean McCoy, who has 949 yards at 5.5 per try.

The Bills will certainly lean on the run to control the ball and keep Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger and his potent offense off the field. Three times this year the Bills have topped 200 yards rushing (one game was a 313-yard performance) and McCoy's backup, Mike Gillislee, averages a whopping 6.4 yards per carry.

When the Steelers have the ball, not only must Buffalo try to cover Pittsburgh's great receiver, Antonio Brown, but try to match up against the running and receiving of versatile Le'Veon Bell.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell vs. Bills linebackers. One of the things that makes Bell so great is his ability to wait for a crease to open and then burst through. The Bills are stout up the middle with DTs Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, so Bell will probably need to bounce some runs outside. If he does, Preston Brown and Zach Brown will be put to the test, and the issue for them is that neither is very good at shedding blockers. That may be just enough for Bell to break some big runs.

--Bills RB LeSean McCoy vs. Steelers LB Ryan Shazier. McCoy is a dual threat out of the backfield. In addition to rushing for 949 yards this season, he also has 35 receptions, including seven against the Raiders last week. Shazier has been a big part of the improving defense and often draws the assignment of covering running backs out of the backfield.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

--Out: WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), S Shamarko Thomas (concussion)

--Doubtful: DT Javon Hargrave (concussion)

--Questionable: K Chris Boswell (abdomen), G Ramon Foster (chest), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee)

BUFFALO BILLS

--Out: LB Lerentee McCray (concussion)

--Questionable: TE Charles Clay (knee), T Cordy Glenn (back), WR Sammy Watkins (foot), DT Kyle Williams (back), WR Robert Woods (knee)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Bills S Sean Davis. The rookie second-round pick is starting to come into his own and become a playmaker at strong safety. He recorded his first interception of the season against the Giants on Sunday and also led the team with seven tackles. He should be a central figure in the game against the Bills, who have the No. 2 rushing offense in the NFL.

FAST FACTS:

In the last four games, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger amassed 1,085 yards passing, 8 TD passes and one interception.

Steelers RB Le'Veon Bell seeks his fifth consecutive game with at least 100 yards from scrimmage and leads the NFL with 146.4 scrimmage yards per game. He is second among NFL RBs with 63 catches.

Steelers WR Antonio Brown leads the NFL with 11 TD catches and is tied for the league lead with 88 receptions.

Steelers LB James Harrison has five sacks in the last five games, not bad for a 38-year-old who almost retired two years back.

Bills QB Tyrod Taylor has three TD passes, two TDs rushing in the last three home games. Since 2015, he is the only NFL QB with 5,000 yards passing (5,327) and 1,000 yards rushing (1,037).

Bills RB LeSean McCoy aims for a third consecutive game over 100 rushing yards.

Bills DT Marcell Dareus had a sack and a forced fumble in the last meeting and has 3.5 sacks in the past four games.

Bills LB Zach Brown is one of two players in NFL with more than 100 tackles (116).

PREDICTION:

The Steelers appear to be on a mission to roll into the playoffs in high gear. QB Ben Roethlisberger can pick apart any defense with WR Antonio Brown and RB Le'Veon Bell.

OUR PICK: Steelers, 28-17.

--Frank Cooney