San Francisco 49ers vs Chicago Bears: prediction, preview, pick to win

KICKOFF: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Soldier Field. TV: CBS, Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Laura Okmin.

SERIES HISTORY: 62nd regular-season meeting. Series is tied, 30-30-1. Consistent with the dead-even history of the series, the 49ers and Bears have split the last two meetings, each winning on the other team's field. The 49ers prevailed 26-20 in overtime last season (Dec. 6) at Chicago, following a 28-20 Bears win at San Francisco the year before (Sept. 14). The 49ers have dominated postseason matchups, going 3-0, including wins in the NFC Championship Game in 1989 and 1995.

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Just as he did in his NFL debut, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick will challenge the Bears' defense. Kaepernick made his first career start against the Bears in 2012. He threw for 243 yards and two touchdowns in a 32-7 win. Kaepernick enters this week's game second in the NFL among quarterbacks in rushing yards (373), trailing only Buffalo's Tyrod Taylor (439).

The Bears' pass rush must be controlled off the edges and push in from the center to keep Kaepernick within the pocket. He is no pocket passer -- never has been -- and forcing him to stay there and throw is an interception waiting to happen. Meanwhile, the Bears' secondary has to play zones and mix them as much as possible. Playing man-to-man allows Kaepernick to gain an easy five yards running while defenders have their backs to him.

The Bears' defense will be without both inside linebackers, Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. John Timu and rookie Nick Kwiatkoski will step in.

With QB Jay Cutler undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, Bears QB Matt Barkley hopes to show 49ers coach Chip Kelly that he made the right draft pick in 2013. Kelly selected Barkley, a controversial pick at the time because the Eagles traded up to get the former USC quarterback in Round 4.

Bears coach John Fox found Barkley's first start acceptable last week, even with the two early interceptions.

"There (were) a couple plays there that we could have executed better; but, for the most part, I think he was really good on the sideline, really good with the coaches and his teammates," Fox said. "He never blinked. He even handled even some negative things early on."

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

--49ers QB Colin Kaepernick vs. Bears OLBs Leonard Floyd and Willie Young. The Bears like to keep Floyd and Young on the field at all times because of their versatility of dropping into coverage, rushing the quarterback and stopping the run. All three aspects of their game will be tested by Kaepernick, who turned back the clock with his best combination rushing/passing performance of the season last week.

--Bears RB Jordan Howard vs. 49ers ILB Nick Bellore. OK, Howard is unlikely to be NFC Rookie of the Year as long as Dak Prescott stays healthy. But maybe the All-Rookie first team alongside Ezekiel Elliott? A visit by the league's worst defense against the run allows for a potential springboard for Howard, who has amassed a lot of yards (766) but just two rushing touchdowns this season. He easily could at least double the latter figure this week.

FRIDAY INJURY REPORT:

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

--Questionable: Aaron Lynch (ankle), WR Quinton Patton (concussion)

CHICAGO BEARS

--Out: QB Jay Cutler (right shoulder)

--Questionable: S Adrian Amos (foot), LB Leonard Floyd (concussion), CB Deiondre' Hall (ankle), WR Eddie Royal (toe), G Josh Sitton (ankle), LB Willie Young (knee)

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT:

Bears LB Nick Kwiatkoski. Forced into the starting lineup after Jerrell Freeman's suspension, he has had so-so results. A touchdown catch by Delanie Walker occurred in his area of the zone. The Bears struggled at times defending the run when he was on the field, but also had big stands with him in there. He will be tested by the scrambling of Colin Kaepernick. Last year the Bears lost at Soldier Field against the 49ers in overtime because they let Blaine Gabbert scramble straight up the middle 44 yards for a touchdown. Kaepernick is a better runner than Gabbert.

FAST FACTS:

Since 2012, 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick ranks third among NFL QBs with 2,207 rushing yards.

49ers RB Carlos Hyde gained 95 yards from scrimmage last week and scored.

Bears QB Matt Barkley passed for a career-high 316 yards and three TDs last week.

Chicago rookie RB Jordan Howard has rushed for 382 yards in the past four games and ranks second among NFL rookies with 766 yards rushing.

Bears LB Leonard Floyd is third among NFL rookies with five sacks.

PREDICTION:

Here are two teams playing out bad seasons and one of them will win this one to drop lower in the draft. An injured Bears defense may have trouble corralling Colin Kaepernick, who has been a surprise fantasy star the last few weeks.

OUR PICK: 49ers, 35-21.

--Frank Cooney