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Ohio State could wind up ranked No. 2 in the country at the end of the season and not make its conference championship game. The Buckeyes lost control of their destiny last Saturday not because of what they did on the field in their second consecutive 62-3 victory but as a result of Michigan's loss at Iowa.
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The Wolverines' first setback this season pushed them into a three-way tie with Ohio State and Penn State atop the Big Ten East Division.
What the season comes down to is this: If the Buckeyes win their final two games, against Michigan State on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN) and Michigan the following week, they'll need the Nittany Lions to lose one of their final two games against Rutgers and Michigan State to secure a spot in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game.
If Michigan had remained undefeated entering its annual showdown with Ohio State and then lost to the Buckeyes, it would have created a three-way tie atop the standings, assuming Penn State wins out. The tiebreaker scenario in that case would have favored Ohio State.
Michigan, meanwhile, still controls its fate. Penn State, by virtue of an upset of Ohio State, has the next-best chance of going to Indianapolis.
So, for the second straight year, Ohio State could ultimately end up being the best team in the Big Ten at the end of the season and not make the conference title game.
The question then becomes: Would a one-loss Ohio State team that didn't win its conference championship still land one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff?
"I see it like this: If we win out all our games, Big Ten championship or not, you're not going to put us in?" Buckeyes quarterback J.T. Barrett asked. "Like you're going to leave Ohio State out? That doesn't make sense to me."
The answers will be provided in the next three weeks. In the meantime, all the Buckeyes (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) can do is prepare for Saturday's visit to East Lansing to take on the struggling Spartans (3-7, 1-6), who entered the week as 24-point underdogs.
"November's here and we have a big one coming," Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said.
Entering the season, Saturday's matchup against Michigan State was one of the games circled on the calendar as a potential blockbuster. But the Spartans, after winning the Big Ten championship a year ago, limp into the game with just one conference win, which finally came last Saturday when they ended a seven-game losing streak with a 49-0 victory over Rutgers.
"We've come to play every single football game, so it's unfortunate where we're at," said Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio, a former Ohio State assistant. "But you can't look past it. You can't look backward here; you have to look to the future. Ohio State is a big game for us, for this program, and always has been. A lot of guys from Ohio, so it's a special game in that respect."
All that's left for Michigan State now is the chance to impact the Big Ten East race in their final two games against Big Ten East co-leaders Ohio State and Penn State. A win Saturday would be a stunner, but the Spartans weren't expected to win last year in Columbus.
"We have reasons to play, even if it's in a spoiler fashion," Dantonio said. "There are possibilities as we go forward. And I think that as we look at who we're playing -- two very good football teams, two Top 10 football teams -- we've got our work cut out for us as we always do. But we've got every reason to play."
Ohio State shouldn't have any problems getting hyped for this one, knowing what's at stake as far as their championship hopes. The Buckeyes undoubtedly will also remember the pain of their only loss last year, when Michigan State spoiled a perfect season with an upset on the last play of the game in the rain in Columbus.
As the Buckeyes left the field last Saturday in College Park, Md., hours before Michigan stumbled at Iowa, they were feeling good about their performance against Maryland and thinking about avenging the 2015 loss to Michigan State.
"There's a little bit of human element that comes into the game, especially with them ruining senior night for us last year and ruining the season we were supposed to have last year," Ohio State guard Billy Price said. "It's in the back of your head, absolutely."
Ohio State appears to have ironed out issues on offense since the Oct. 22 loss at Penn State, outscoring Nebraska and Maryland 124-3 in the last two games.
There's more of a concerted effort to get the ball in H-back Curtis Samuel's hands. He has game-breaking talent -- he is the only FBS player with at least 600 yards rushing (637) and receiving (750), and he has 13 touchdowns (seven rushing, six receiving).
"He just knows how to make a play," Buckeyes cornerback Marshon Lattimore said. "He knows how to go out there and do what he has to do to put us in a position to win. I love when he touches the ball."
