After a Breeders' Cup weekend filled with major upsets, the next question is: Who will be Horse of the Year?
Any one of several horses could have stepped up Saturday – or even Friday – to lay a clear claim to the title. None did. And that leaves the voters scratching their heads.
For last year's top Eclipse Award, it was "pick 'em" between Zenyatta and Blame, the horse who ended her 19-race undefeated streak by a nose in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic. Zenyatta got the nod. The year before, it came down to Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra and the latter was the winner.
This year's picture is so muddled that the words "Horse of the Year" were not even uttered once in the winners' news conference after the Classic. Not even the owners or trainer of Drosselmeyer were ready to put his name forward for the honor. After all, the Classic was only his second win of the year and the other was in a minor event at Belmont Park.
Still, he might get some consideration simply because he did win the Classic and the other contenders are less than compelling.
Perhaps one of the strongest candidates, and one not getting much early mention, is Game On Dude, who led most of the way in the Classic and held on for second. He has three wins from eight starts and those victories include the Santa Anita Handicap and the Goodwood – both Grade I events. Granted, those are not the strongest credentials and his California base will work against him with the East Coast voting bloc.
Super filly Havre de Grace will get a good look. She won five of her six races this year, including a victory over males in the Grade I Woodward at Saratoga, before finishing a disappointing fourth in the Classic. Had she run instead in Friday's Ladies' Classic and won that event, she might be a shoo-in for Horse of the Year.
Two horses who were retired before the Breeders' Cup might get some votes. Tizway won the Met Mile at Belmont and the Whitney at 9 furlongs over the Saratoga track and was prepping for the Classic when he was hurt. Cape Blanco was set to go in the $3 million Breeders' Cup Turf off victories in the Arlington Million and the Turf Classic before he was retired. Tizway probably didn't do enough to get the top honor, though. Cape Blanco would have had a tough time against the Europeans in the Turf and grass horses are a tough sell for Horse of the Year, anyway.
The 3-year-olds -- both colts and fillies -- took turns winning and none really compiled a compelling record. Perhaps Royal Delta, winner of the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies' Turf, would have the best argument. She also won the Alabama at Saratoga and the Black Eyed Susan at Pimlico. But she was 8 1/4 lengths back of Havre de Grace at the end of the Beldame when she tackled older horses and finished third in the Coaching Club American Oaks behind her two main rivals -- It's Tricky and Plum Pretty. She beat both of them on Friday.
It would be a major upset to see the turf journalists and publicists hand their top honor to a foreign-based horse. But, in this odd year, Goldikova might have had a chance if she had won the $2 million Breeders' Cup Mile for an unprecedented fourth straight time. Sadly, she finished third and perhaps should have been disqualified to last for stretch interference. St Nicholas Abbey, winner of the Turf, is a nice horse but won't contend for top honors even at home in Ireland.
Sprinters never win the top award and they won't this year, either. The best of the bunch might be trainer Bob Baffert's 2-year-old, Secret Circle, who won the inaugural running of the $500,000 Juvenile Sprint.
And speaking of Baffert, you know it's an unusual year when he trains a Breeders' Cup winner and the runner-up in the Classic and even he isn't talking Horse of the Year.
Anyway, 2-year-olds seldom win Horse of the Year -- exceptions including Favorite Trick in 1997 and the somewhat more subsequently successful Secretariat in 1972. This year is unlikely to be one of those rare years, although Hansen could deserve the award for beating the previously undefeated favorite, Union Rags, with a gutsy stretch run in Saturday's $2 million Juvenile off just two prep races at Turfway Park.
Animal Kingdom, sidelined by injury after winning the Kentucky Derby, could prove next year to be a great one and his bloodlines offer a needed infusion of difference into the American industry. But his 2011 resume is unlikely to prove weighty enough to make him Horse of the Year.
The Eclipse Awards, including the Horse of the Year, are decided by voting among the members of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters and the Thoroughbred Racing Associations and editorial employees of Daily Racing Form.
It's even going to be hard for those worthies to figure out who to vote for in some of the divisions this year.
Look for another round of upsets when the Eclipse Awards are announced.
(Editor's Note: Bob Kieckhefer is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters and votes on the Eclipse Awards. He has not yet decided how to cast his ballot for Horse of the Year.)
