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Harlan's Holiday early Derby favorite

By ROBERT KIECKHEFER

LOUISVILLE, Ky., May 1 (UPI) -- Even the Churchill Downs oddsmaker is having a hard time picking Saturday's 128th running of the Kentucky Derby.

At Wednesday evening's post-position draw, oddsmaker Mike Battaglia installed Florida Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes winner Harlan's Holiday as the favorite for the Run for the Roses. But he listed the colt at relatively long odds of 9-2. And Battaglia's co-second picks, Buddha and Came Home, were posted at odds of 5-1.

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Despite the full field of 20, with attendant post-post position intrigue, Battaglia said the draw for starting spots did not change any of his odds determinations.

Harlan's Holiday will start from the No. 14 spot. That's the last stall in the main starting gate and will give jockey Edgar Prado a chance to position his horse during the first run past the stands. Came Home, winner of the Santa Anita Derby, will be in No. 15, the first stall in the auxiliary gate,while Wood Memorial winner Buddha will be in No. 10.

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Trainer Ken McPeek said Harlan's Holiday still has room to improve on his earlier successes. "I've got a whole lot of horse left," he said. "He seems to be maintaining and we're confident."

Johannesburg, winner of last year's Bessemer Trust Breeders' Cup Juvenile,will start from the rail. Blue Burner took the outside position.

Since the field runs out of a chute and down the long Churchill Downs stretch before hitting the first turn, post positions may not be as important as they sometimes seem. In recent years, horses starting from the far outside have done the best.

The day's biggest surprise was trainer Bob Baffert's decision to enter Mike egram's Danthebluegrassman in the Derby. The colt ran last in the Santa Anita Derby in his last start and was not considered a Kentucky Derby prospect. But Baffert said Danthebluegrassman never got a chance to run in the Santa Anita race because of traffic.

"He was a different horse when he got on this surface," Baffert said.

With 24 horses entered and only 20 allowed to start, Baffert's decision prevented Windward Passage from running in the Derby.

After the top three in the morning line are two at 6-1: Johannesburg and Wood Memorial runner-up Medgalia d'Oro. Gary Stevens had been slated to ride Sunday Break, who did not get into the race. He picked up the mount on Johnannesburg "this morning. I'll stick to that story," Stevens said. "I've picked up some good ones before but never a 2-year-old champion," Stevens said.

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He said the inside post position makes it clear Johannesburg won't contest the early pace. "This race is won in the last 2 furlongs, not the first 2 furlongs," he said. Johannesburg has raced only once since the Oct. 27 Juvenile -- finishing second in a small stakes event at the Curragh in Ireland. No Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner has ever come back to win the Kentucky Derby.

In one of the widest-open fields in memory, no other starter is lower than 15-1 in the morning line.

If all 20 horses start, the 128th running of the Kentucky Derby will be worth $1,205,000 -- a record purse.

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