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UPI Intelligence Watch

By JOHN C.K. DALY, UPI International Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Feb. 6 (UPI) -- In a threat certain to unsettle the NYMEX and IPE oil markets, a senior Iranian official said that if Iranian oil exports are sanctioned it will ban transit of oil tankers in the Gulf.

Iran's Mehr news agency reported that Shura Council national committee for security and foreign policy member Sulaiman Jaafar Zadeh said, "If a ban is imposed on our oil exports, we will not allow oil tankers to sail in the Gulf waters."

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NYMEX, or the New York Mercantile Exchange and London's International Petroleum Exchange, or IPE, are the world's leading commodity markets for energy. Iran has announced its intention to set up a rival oil bourse in Teheran in March that will trade in euros rather than dollars.

At its narrowest point the Strait of Hormuz is only 21 miles wide, two 1-mile-wide channels for inbound and outbound tanker traffic, as well as a 2-mile-wide buffer zone. Iran has deployed Chinese HY-2 "Silkworm" anti-ship missiles along its Persian Gulf coast and its Abu Musa, Qeshm and Sirri islands. Over 14 million barrels of oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz each day.

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There is an ominous precedent for the Iranian threat. During the 1980-1988 "tanker war," between Iran and Iraq, there were 543 attacks on ships, with approximately 200 merchant sailors killed. More than 80 vessels were sunk or written off, causing more than $2 billion in losses and a 200 percent increase in global hull insurance rates. The U.S. State Department urged the government to re-flag 11 Kuwaiti oil tankers, which it did as well as providing naval escort through the Strait of Hormuz.

Any Iranian action to carry out its threat would undoubtedly involve the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, home-ported in Bahrain.

Zadeh said that the U.S. and Western countries "don't have the ability to take decisions in the Middle East. Iranian supremacy in the region cannot be denied, and any threat or pressure on Iran will make the West receive a severe hit in Afghanistan and Iraq."


Masood Khalili was Afghanistan's ambassador to India from Feb. 1996 until late 2005, when he was appointed Afghan ambassador to Turkey.

Khalili is an ethnic Tajik, the son of the famous Afghan poet Khalilullah Khalili. On Sept. 9, 2001, two days before the Sept 11 terrorist attacks on the U.S. Khalili was severely injured in the terrorist attack that killed the Afghan leader of the Northern Alliance Ahmad Shah Masood, for whom he was a senior political adviser.

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Khalili recently gave a wide-ranging exclusive interview about Afghanistan to Rediff news agency.

When asked about the reemergence of the Taliban Khalili replied, "They have not become a very dangerous force, but have become a force in Afghanistan. After September 11, 2001, when the Americans, Afghans and the international community attacked them, their morale was broken, their forces were scattered, their mentors were scared. Al-Qaida, their supporters, were swept from Afghanistan, but slowly and gradually they started to return. They have returned to the south and east of Afghanistan -- to very limited provinces. Their bases are Zabul and Kunar on the eastern side of Afghanistan, which borders Pakistan. And then to Paktia and Paktika, the southern provinces of Afghanistan, bordering Pakistan."

When queried about current Taliban numbers Khalili said, "It's very hard to say because they are not alone. They are accompanied by some Pakistanis from madrassas. So sometimes they are between 600 and 1,000 and sometimes it can be little more or less," adding, "Personally I have seen many wars, and I don't think they can be successful."

Khalili then said that there were four issues involved in defeating the Taliban. The first was the tripartite meetings every two months between Kabul and Islamabad, which attempts to decrease the "infiltration of the Taliban, some Arabs, some Chechens, some Uzbeks from Uzbekistan." Secondly is to deploy the national army and police along with U.S. forces to bar the Taliban entry into Afghanistan. The third step is to attack Taliban bases inside the country, while the fourth and final step is "to make Afghanistan strong. Economically, politically, socially with democracy, institutionalized democracy. If you combine all these tactics, the Taliban, al Qaida, will be defeated. All will wither away slowly."

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As the Pentagon plans to increase its naval presence in the western Pacific the Japanese government is wondering how to resolve issues of national security with local sentiment.

The government of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has accepted in principle the home-porting in Japan of the U.S. nuclear-powered carrier USS George Washington, which will replace the non-nuclear USS Kitty Hawk, which is due to be retired in 2008 from Yokosuka naval base in Kanagawa Prefecture.

The Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review recommends that the Navy should deploy half of its 12 aircraft carriers and 60 percent of its nuclear submarines in the Pacific.

Kyodo news agency reported that Japanese government sources speaking on condition of anonymity said that Tokyo accepted the nuclear carrier presence in exchange for concessions during the ongoing bilateral talks on realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

As the only country to have been attacked with an atomic weapons, nuclear issues are very politically sensitive in Japan.

Both governments denied that the two issues were linked in any kind of a quid pro quo deal. Japan accepted the carrier basing on Oct. 27, two days before Tokyo and Washington concluded a realignment agreement, which includes transferring 7,000 U.S. Marines from Okinawa, with 6,000 being redeployed to Guam.

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