India's emissions to triple by 2031

NEW DELHI, Sept. 3 (UPI) -- India's greenhouse gas emissions will more than triple over the next two decades, according to a report released by the government Wednesday.

Based on five separate studies by non-governmental groups, including the global consultancy McKinsey & Co., the report forecasts India's carbon dioxide emissions will rise to between 4 billion and 7.3 billion tons by 2031.

India's environment minister, Jairam Ramesh, in releasing the report stressed, "Per capita (emissions) is the only internationally recognized basis for equity."

Four out of the five studies, he said, show that "even two decades from now, India's per capita greenhouse gas emissions would be well below the global average 25 years earlier."

All five studies show evidence of a "substantial and continuous improvement" in India's energy efficiency of gross domestic product, Ramesh said.

"The results should set at rest any apprehensions that India's (greenhouse gas) emissions are poised for runaway increase over the next two decades," states the report.

India currently emits about 3 billion tons of greenhouse gases each year, making it the world's fourth-largest polluter.

The report is likely to form the framework for India's negotiations at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December, where it is expected to come under pressure to set an emissions reduction target.

India has resisted pressure to set limits on CO2 output, contending that doing so would slow its economic growth and that the responsibility for reducing greenhouse gases lies with longtime polluters.

Just last week, Ramesh categorically said, "India should not, cannot and must not take legal binding targets on emission level decrease at the Copenhagen meeting."

In releasing the report, Ramesh pointed out that it is "not a do-nothing strategy."

"We have to be serious about climate change and so far we have not been able to address the problem fully," Ramesh acknowledged. He said the government would try to amend the 2001 Energy Conservation Act during Parliament's winter session.

British Energy and Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband, visiting New Delhi this week with International Development Secretary Douglas Alexander, said India should persuade other developing countries to support an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen, such as an 80 percent cut in carbon emissions and a limit on global warming of 2 percent by 2050, the Daily Telegraph reports.

Miliband suggested that appealing to India's "enlightened self interest" -- economics -- rather than the dire consequences of failure, is the key to persuading the country to sign an agreement in Copenhagen.

"It's got to be a deal they (India) can say helps Indian development and doesn't hinder it, which says you can grow but in a low-carbon way, with significant commitments to cut carbon in the West," he told the Telegraph.