China emissions could peak around 2030

BEIJING, Aug. 18 (UPI) -- China's greenhouse gas emissions could peak around 2030 if the government continues to institute the proper policies, a new study reveals.

In the "2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report," a panel from state-run think tanks, including the National Development and Reform Commission and the Development Research Center, advises China to invest significantly in low-carbon technology research and development.

With the right policies, the report predicts, China's emissions growth could ease down after 2020, peak around 2030 and then fall to or below 2005 levels.

"Only by using advanced low-carbon technologies can China's greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2030; otherwise, the peak will be delayed," said Jiang Kejun, a leading economist on the panel, China Daily reports. The government, he said, has been "on the right track" in forming policy decisions to develop low-carbon technologies as new economic growth engines.

"I think China will become a major supplier of nuclear, wind and hydropower technologies and electricity transmission by 2030," said Kejun. "And that should be a strategic goal for the Chinese government to pursue."

The panel said the government should invest approximately $146.5 billion into low-carbon technology development each year until 2050.

According to another panel expert, the funds would be mainly used to introduce technologies that would raise the energy efficiency of end-users in industry, construction and transportation.

China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to set limits on its emissions. It contends that the responsibility for reducing emissions rests with the developed countries that have been longtime polluters. Its role is crucial to the success of the U.N.-backed negotiations on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark, this December.

The conclusions of the 900-page 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report represent the first time a Chinese think tank has officially predicted when emissions will peak. The timeliness of its release could set the stage for China to set more ambitious targets for reducing carbon emissions.

Last week the State Council called for all provincial and local governments to consider climate change initiatives in their economic and social development policies. According to China's state-run Xinhua news agency, a new climate change resolution and amendment to the renewable energy law are on the agenda of the next bimonthly session of the standing committee of the National People's Congress.

In early June, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that China would put in place carbon emissions reduction targets in national development programs.