Analysis: Nigerian rebels end cease-fire

Nigeria’s leading militant group threatened to resume attacks on foreign and domestic oil and gas operations following a four-month cease-fire intended to allow the new president to make good on vows to reform the petroleum sector and root out corruption.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta earlier this week sent a communique to media stating its intention to resume attacks and kidnapping of industry workers.

“With effect from 12 midnight today, Sunday September 23, 2007, we will commence attacks on installations and abduction of expatriates," statement said.

Since then there have been no major incidents of violence directed at petroleum operations attributed to MEND, though numerous other groups have been blamed for attacks during the cease-fire.

"There will be no forewarning of these attacks but a statement will follow soon after," the statement said.

The statement said the decision was prompted by the arrest of one of its leaders in Angola.

Henry Okah was picked up in Angola on Sept. 3 on weapons-trafficking charges, which MEND said were trumped up by Nigeria and Angola. Both nations’ leaders have denied the accusations.

While most MEND members and its leadership received guarded praise from Nigeria’s new leadership for initiating the cease-fire, Okah reportedly continued to wage violent attacks and denounced the end of hostilities while continuing a weeks-long battle with rival groups in the streets of the oil-rich Niger Delta's largest city, Port Harcourt.

MEND and other militant groups have called for a more equitable distribution of the country’s oil wealth.

Since the 1970s, Nigeria, Africa's No. 1 oil producer, has pumped more than $300 billion worth of crude from the southern delta states, according to estimates. High unemployment in the delta, environmental degradation due to oil and gas extraction, and a lack of basic resources such as fresh water and electricity have angered the region's youth, who have taken up arms, many times supplied by political leaders, and formed militant groups and local gangs.

Following his election in April, President Umaru Yar'Adua appealed for calm and said he would "set a worthy personal example" by tackling political and economic corruption as well as violence in the delta.

On Tuesday, while attending the U.N. General Assembly in New York, Yar’Adua attempted to draw some commonality among all Nigerians saying all citizens, including politicians, had a “lot of work to do to change our concept of leadership.”

Those proposed reforms include changes to the Nigerian economy, particularly its petroleum sector, which generates up to 95 percent of the country’s revenue.

“We have a very clear vision. It is not going to be easy to achieve, but we will try very hard,” he said.

Although Yar’Adua’s conviction to take on corruption appears genuine, his ability to be successful remains in question.

“The situation in Port Harcourt (and the Niger Delta) will remain unstable in the short term until Nigerian authorities can regain some level of control,” said a recent report by Stratfor consulting group.

Others, however, have praised the Nigerian leader for his efforts.

The Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People, representing one of Nigeria’s most dominant tribes, said Yar’Adua’s “crusade for transparency, accountability and good governance” recognizes the need to address economic injustices in the delta as a means of curtailing the violence there.

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(e-mail: energy@upi.com)