Analysis: Did Bush turn green?

BERLIN, June 1 (UPI) -- U.S. President George W. Bush's latest advances on climate change may have been praised at home; in Europe, however, days before the Group of Eight summit in Germany, officials see the policy shift in Washington as a mere attempt to torpedo Berlin's more ambitious plans to counter global warming.

Bush's turnaround on climate change is a surprise: The U.S. president Thursday partly gave up his steadfast opposition to concrete action against climate change, action that he has previously said would put a drag on the U.S. economy.

After years of opposition, Bush Thursday in a news conference for the first time advocated setting "a long-term global goal" to cut greenhouse gas emissions; he also called on some 14 other high-polluting nations that include India and China to join the United States in negotiations aimed at reaching an agreement by the end of next year to stop global warming.

Bush, who was perceived as the main obstacle to concrete action against climate change being agreed upon at next week's G8 summit, all of a sudden appeared to be going green.

"The United States is taking the lead, and that's the message I'm going to take to the G8," Bush said ahead of the June 6-8 summit hosted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel (who also holds the current European Union presidency) in the Baltic Sea resort of Heiligendamm.

Bush's message, however, didn't resonate so well in Europe.

While the president's turnaround was praised by his closest allies (the United Kingdom and Australia), officials in Brussels and in Berlin were far less enthusiastic.

After all, Bush did not spell out any concrete steps Washington would take to reduce emissions over the short and medium term. Moreover, he still opposes binding greenhouse gas emission caps and carbon dioxide emissions trading -- measures strongly called for by Merkel, most other industrialized nations and the scientific community.

"The president's comments simply say: 'Let's start negotiations with the likes of China, India and Brazil in a framework parallel to the U.N. talks.' That says nothing about what the United States is prepared to do to stop global warming," William Bumpers, head of the Global Climate Practice Group at law firm Baker Botts, told United Press International in a telephone interview. "I don't think the president's comments will change the outcome of the G8 negotiations."

A leading expert on climate change, Bumpers has been involved in multiple international and domestic transactional and policy developments under the Kyoto Protocol and state programs since 1992.

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said the United States, as the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, bore a special responsibility and that Bush's latest advances did not go far enough.

"We need a more ambitious position on the part of the United States," Barroso told Friday's edition of the Financial Times Germany newspaper.

"The United States are putting a lot of emphasis on market mechanisms in the fight against climate change, and they are right to do so," Barroso said. "But market mechanisms only work if there are binding targets."

He urged Bush to work with other leaders at the summit and warned him not to block a commitment on measures to stop global warming.

"I hope that the United States intends to use the meeting as an opportunity to make the G8 summit contribute towards the United Nation's multilateral climate protection system," Barroso said.

U.N. leaders are due to gather in Bali, Indonesia, at the end of this year to begin negotiations for an agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.

Merkel, backed by Britain and Japan, had hoped to have the other G8 leaders agree to her draft proposal on climate change, which included binding targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 50 percent by 2050. Merkel's draft was supported by all G8 nations except the United States, and a major rift between Washington and Berlin was looming.

Bush's new advances on first glance may look like a concession, but observers say they really aren't: Bush's alternative plans undermine the chances for real progress at the G8 summit. Even worse, Bush's plan for his own forum on climate change might even derail or substitute for the Bali talks.

Merkel, who has been eager to improve ties with Washington, is not keen on a new trans-Atlantic clash like the one over Iraq a few years ago; however, she still wants to -- if possible -- push through her own, more ambitious climate change initiative.

"What is positive," Merkel said Thursday in Berlin in a carefully drafted response, "is that we can see from the speech that the president made earlier today that nobody can ignore the question of climate change."

Excitement sounds different.

Bumpers said he expected "tough negotiations" at the summit and that Bush would reject any concrete greenhouse gas emission caps. But even if the summit's final statement falls short of what Merkel has envisioned, there is still room for progress to be made in Heiligendamm.

"Whatever comes out of the G8 summit, it's becoming increasingly critical that we get India and China and, to a lesser degree, Brazil engaged in serious discussions to change their emission profiles, whether that will be realized through an aspirational limit or specific emissions targets," he said.

Merkel seems to be on the same front: The leaders of India and China have both been invited to join the G8 meeting in Heiligendamm.

G8 includes Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States.

--

(e-mail: energy@upi.com)