Analysis: Climate poses defense concerns

WASHINGTON, May 16 (UPI) -- U.S. lawmakers are heeding the warning of several retired military officers who say climate change poses a serious risk to national security.

The Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act, sponsored by Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., addresses issues raised by the officers, and provisions from it have been drafted into the Intelligence Authorization Act and the House Defense Authorization bill.

The panel of 11 retired military officers released the report, "National Security and the Threat of Climate Change," in conjunction with CNA Corp. last month. Its findings helped push Markey's provision through the House.

"I have long considered global warming a national security issue, but the strong agreement of 11 retired three- and four-star admirals and generals ... has helped to convince others that the security of the United States is threatened by global warming," Markey told United Press International.

Instability often results from natural disasters or water shortages -- a probable effect of climate change -- and instability in any region of the world poses a threat to the United States, said panel member Gen. Gordon Sullivan, former Army chief of staff.

"The risks are so high in this area and potentially catastrophic," Sullivan said. "(Climate change) is a multiplier."

Panel members linked several current humanitarian crises with climate change, including conflict in Darfur and Somalia.

"At the heart of the Somalia crisis you will find drought," Sullivan said. "Drought caused famine, and famine caused NGOs to show up with food. Some tribes started controlling the food supply," forcing other tribes to migrate or fight for access to vital resources.

The report urges policymakers to integrate climate-change concerns into national security and defense strategies, as well as form global partnerships to stabilize climate change. Sullivan said he urged U.S. leaders to join the Kyoto Protocol, and other panelists said strategizing ahead of time will improve resource management.

"I feel we have a reactive posture and it's hard to catch up when you're reacting rather than being proactive," said Adm. Joseph Lopez, former commander in chief of U.S. Naval Forces Europe.

The provision from Markey's legislation included in the two authorization bills requires the director of national intelligence to assess the impact of climate change on current and future military operations. The National Intelligence Estimate would project the "political, social, agricultural, and economic risks" faced by countries of military or political interest to the United States, as well as areas with looming humanitarian crises.

The military panel's findings coincide with a number of other reports that forecast dire results from climate change. In early April the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a report on the impacts of climate change, including increased drought and flooding, greater spread of infectious diseases and wide-scale extinction of plant and animal species.

However, while climate change may cause natural disasters, catalyzing instability, some experts worry linking the two will divert attention from the real causes behind political upheaval.

"We would be better served to focus our concerns around the specific issues mentioned in the report rather than wrapping our efforts around the mantra of climate change," said Jeff Kueter, president of the Marshall Institute, a non-profit organization that assesses scientific issues related to public policy.

Policymakers should focus on increasing freedom of the press, the rule of law, property rights, adequate infrastructure and economic growth worldwide, among other things, said Roger Bate, resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Weather-related predicaments have always plagued countries with instable economies and political environments, Bate said, and the real solution lies in solving the societal problems that precipitate humanitarian crises when stressed by natural disasters -- not the weather itself.

"The point is that they're unstable anyway, and that's the thing that needs to be addressed," he said.

--

(e-mail: energy@upi.com)