Ancient records confirm climate models

EDINBURGH, Scotland, Jan. 17 (UPI) -- European researchers say ancient records, including details gathered from monks' diaries, are revealing how and why climate has changed in the last 500 years.

Researchers said the historic data, from sources such as weather station archives and farming harvest records, closely match modern computer simulations of European climate patterns during the last five centuries, Britain's The Independent reported Monday.

The University of Edinburgh, in collaboration with universities in Germany, Switzerland and Spain, carried out the study.

"Five hundred years ago, the records were quite sparse, but there (are) a lot of data going back to the 19th century and quite a lot of data from the 17th and 18th centuries," Gabi Hegerl of Edinburgh's School of GeoSciences said. "Before that, we're working from monks' diaries and harvest records and all kinds of indirect evidence about whether they experienced warm or cold summers and winters.

"Around 1700 and the early 19th century, for example, there were very cold winters. That's been captured quite well in the records."

The trends seen in ancient records correspond well to current computer models of the period, she said.

"The climate models seem to be working quite well for the past, so we should expect that -- at least when it comes to temperature -- they will do well for the future," she said. "It indicates that the predictions might be on target."