Terrorist risks said to be underestimated

WEST POINT, N.Y., Dec. 17 (UPI) -- Three West Point Military Academy professors say standard methods of risk analysis likely underestimate the actual risks posed by terrorists.

The military scientists said their study demonstrates the common technique of calculating probabilities of hazardous events ignores the capacity of intelligent terrorists to assess our vulnerabilities, adapt to new situations and create new plans to achieve their objectives.

The researchers compared standard risk analysis methods in which probabilities of events are calculated, to what the authors call a "defender-attacker-defender" model that examines information available to terrorists, and their intentions and decisions.

"We show that treating adversary decisions as uncertain hazards is inappropriate because it can provide a different risk ranking and may underestimate the risk," said Professor Gregory Parnell, one of the study's authors.

Assessing probabilities of attacker decisions will not increase security, but defender-attacker-defender decision analysis models can provide a sound assessment of risk and the essential information our nation needs to make risk-informed decisions, they said.

The study is to appear in the January issue of the journal Risk Analysis.