Professor: Yanks heavy Series favorite

NEWARK, N.J., Oct. 28 (UPI) -- A math professor says he figures the New York Yankees have a 70 percent chance of beating the Philadelphia Phillies in the World Series.

New Jersey Institute of Technology Professor Bruce Bukiet applies mathematical modeling techniques to elucidate the dynamics of run-scoring in baseball.

Bukiet says his math model gives the Yankees a 7-in-10 chance of winning the series with the most probable outcome being a Yankees championship in six games (23 percent chance). The chance of them winning in five or seven games is 19 percent each, he said.

Bukiet says the Phillies have a 30 percent chance to defeat the Yankees, with their best chance being a 10 percent probability of winning in seven games.

Bukiet's method uses 2009 regular season statistics for each player on each team's roster. He then applies a Markov Process approach to modeling production of runs in baseball games.

"Baseball can be a terrific learning tool," he said. "It demonstrates how math can be used to help us better understand the world around us."

Teams can buck the odds. Bukiet only gave the Phillies a 16 percent chance of knocking off the Los Angeles Dodgers in five games in the National League Championship Series. But the defending world champions did it.

The Series starts Wednesday night in New York.