NOAA downsizes hurricane season forecast

MIAMI, Aug. 6 (UPI) -- The remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to be normal or quieter than usual, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

Revising its seasonal forecast, the NOAA said there is a 50 percent chance of a near-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a below-normal season and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.

In May, forecasters said the 2009 hurricane season was likely to be slightly more active than normal. But an El Nino, the warm current in the eastern Pacific, has begun developing and is expected to damp down the Atlantic hurricane season.

"El Niño produces stronger upper-level westerly winds over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean, which help to reduce hurricane activity by blowing away the tops of growing thunderstorm clouds that would normally lead to tropical storms," said Gerry Bell, who heads seasonal hurricane forecasting at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

The agency warns that neither the revised forecast nor the slow start to the hurricane season, with only one tropical depression so far, are reasons for public complacency. People who live in vulnerable areas should be prepared for a hurricane to strike.