STATE COLLEGE, Pa., March 18 (UPI) -- One of the first 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts is calling for fewer named storms than during recent years, as well as fewer U.S. landfalls.
AccuWeather Inc. chief long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi said although fewer storms are expected, what storms do develop might be more likely to form in the Atlantic Basin, closer to the U.S. coast and more capable of making landfall.
AccuWeather forecasts 13 storms, as compared with 16 last year. Of those storms, eight are expected to become hurricanes, with two of them developing into major events. Bastardi said he expects four storms to impact the United States this year, compared with eight that struck during the past year.
Bastardi said the factors that might combine to produce fewer storms include:
--The weak La Nina in the Pacific Ocean will dissipate and a reverse to a weak El Nino, which is associated with decreased hurricane activity in the Atlantic, is most likely to develop during the middle to latter part of the hurricane season.
--The expected orientation of high pressure in the eastern Atlantic will produce stronger easterly trade winds across northern Africa than last year, resulting in increased dust and dry air being pushed westward into the Atlantic where many tropical storms originate.
--Cooler water temperatures in the deep tropical Atlantic, which can reduce hurricane activity and intensity. That may create a season during which storms reach greater intensity further north and east than last year, leading to less impact in the Caribbean areas hit hard last year.
--A continuing multi-decadal pattern of higher-than-average water temperatures in the Atlantic, raising the chance of major storms near the East Coast until about 2020.
