Scientists solve climate science puzzle

LIVERMORE, Calif., Oct. 14 (UPI) -- A U.S.-led international team of scientists says it has reconciled the differences between simulated and observed temperature trends in the tropics.

The researchers used computer model simulations archived at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to refute a recent claim that simulated temperature trends in the tropics are fundamentally inconsistent with observations.

Climate model experiments invariably predict human-caused greenhouse gas increases should lead to more warming in the tropical troposphere -- the lowest layer of the atmosphere -- than at the tropical land and ocean surface, the researchers said. But, until several years ago, most observations suggested the tropical troposphere had warmed substantially less than the surface.

A paper published last year claimed to show "models and observations disagree to a statistically significant extent" in terms of tropical temperature trends. That claim resulted in the new study led by Lawrence Livermore's Benjamin Santer. In marked contrast to the earlier claim, Santer's team found no fundamental discrepancy between modeled and observed trends in tropical temperatures.

The research that included scientists from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office, the University of Vienna and the University of East Anglia is detailed online in the International Journal of Climatology.