New storm model better predicts flooding

STONY BROOK, N.Y., Aug. 6 (UPI) -- U.S. scientists say a newly developed storm surge model should provide more accurate predictions of flooding in the New York metropolitan area.

Professor Brian Colle and colleagues at Stony Brook University's School of Marine and Atmospheric Scienc developed the new modeling system from a state-of-the-art atmospheric model they coupled with an ocean model.

The researchers said they tested the model's ability to forecast peak water levels resulting from Tropical Storm Floyd in 1999 and a nor'easter in December 1992. They said the model predicted water levels that were within 10 percent of the observed levels.

"Ultimately, the goal is to provide emergency managers with a range of possibilities as to what may happen as the result of a storm, and this approach shows great promise," said Colle.

The researchers also used the new model to assess the potential impact of local tides and winds on the severity of flooding. Those results suggested New York City escaped significant flooding during Tropical Storm Floyd only because the storm's winds had weakened before reaching the region and because the strongest winds occurred during low tide.

The study appears in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.