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Tsunamis: The worst may be yet to come

LOS ANGELES, Jan. 29 (UPI) -- A U.S. review of potential tsunami hazards suggested 2004's catastrophic tsunami was far from the worst possible scenario in Indian Ocean borderlands.

The research -- conducted by Costas Synolakis, director of the University of Southern California Tsunami Research Center, and Northwestern University Professor Emile Okal -- evaluated potential tsunami-generating sources in the area between Africa, Asia, Australia and Antarctica and calculated the tsunamis' impact.

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Okal and Synolakis considered eight scenarios -- two along Southern Sumatra in Indonesia, two in the North Andaman segment of the Sumatra Subduction Zone, two sources along the Makran Subduction Zone, south of western Pakistan, and two sources south of Java.

The researchers determined Africa's east coast is vulnerable from south Sumatran tsunamis and, in particular, Somalia remains at high risk due to the focusing effect of the Maldives ridge. The Comoro Islands located between Tanzania and Madagascar would probably be affected more severely than in 2004.

The scientists also found major earthquakes in south Java would generate substantial levels of destruction in Northern Australia, despite the sparse level of development in that region.

The research is detailed in the Geophysical Journal International.

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