Climate change to drive trees northward

OTTAWA, Dec. 4 (UPI) -- Canadian researchers expect climate change to shift North American tree species northward by hundreds of miles, shrinking forested areas by more than half.

The study by Daniel McKenney and colleagues at the Canadian Forest Service is said to be the most extensive and detailed study to date of 130 North American tree species. The study is based on an extensive data-gathering effort and therefore is said to be more comprehensive than studies based on published range maps.

The research includes data from Canada as well as from the United States.

If the trees were assumed to respond to climate change by dispersing their progeny to more favorable locations, McKenney determined ranges would move northward by approximately 430 miles and decrease in size by an average of 12 percent. If the species were assumed unable to disperse, the average expected range shift would be approximately 200 miles, with range reductions of 58 percent.

The researchers said they expect most species will fall somewhere between the two extremes of ability to disperse.

The research appears in the December issue of the journal BioScience.