Climate change: hard on food supply

NEW YORK, Dec. 4 (UPI) -- A U.S.-led study suggests the toll of climate change on the world's food supplies might be worse than expected.

Researchers at Columbia University's Earth Institute, in three separate reports, said previous predictions of climate change on food supplies, already daunting, have failed to account for extreme weather, disease and other complications.

"Many people assume that we will never have a problem with food production on a global scale," said Francesco Tubiello, a physicist and agricultural expert at the NASA/Goddard Institute of Space Studies who co-authored all three papers. Goddard is a member of the Earth Institute. "But there is a strong potential for negative surprises."

The researchers predictions of progressive changes stemming from 1- to 5-degree Celsius temperature rises during coming decades failed to account for seasonal extremes of heat, drought or rain, multiplier effects of spreading diseases or weeds and other ecological upsets. All are believed more likely in the future.

The reports, co-authored by researchers from Europe, North America and Australia, appear in this week's issue of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.