Bird flu outbreaks might involve duck meat

LIVERPOOL, England, Oct. 25 (UPI) -- British scientists have determined a major avian influenza outbreak would most likely involve the United Kingdom's duck meat industry.

The University of Liverpool study also determined 73 percent of avian flu outbreaks in the United Kingdom probably wouldn't spread beyond initially infected farms.

The university’s veterinary science and mathematics departments were asked by Britain's Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs to produce an Asian strain avian flu model based on unique levels of detail, including contact points between farms.

The study showed the most vulnerable areas were East Anglia, Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire -- largely due to the number of duck meat companies in these regions. The researchers said they believe duck meat was more likely to cause large outbreaks of avian flu because ducks often don't show signs of the disease and therefore delay diagnosis and control of the infection.

The scientists used a computer model to simulate millions of outbreaks of avian flu to better understand how the disease might spread across the United Kingdom.

The results of that research are detailed in the Proceedings of the Royal Society, series B.