Hurricane forecasters shift focus inland

GAINESVILLE, Fla., June 21 (UPI) -- U.S. scientists, in addition to predicting where hurricanes will make landfall, are focusing on where storms cause the most deaths, which is often well inland.

University of Florida Assistant Professor Corene Matyas said hurricanes historically have proven most fatal at landfall, producing devastating storm surges and high winds that caught many by surprise. But satellites and other technologies allow much more accurate warnings to be issued, giving coastal residents time to flee or make storm preparations.

Today's hurricanes cause the most deaths inland, where intense rainfall and resulting flooding often surprise people.

But researchers are learning how to predict where tropical storms and hurricanes will dump the most rain -- even days after, and hundreds of miles away from, landfall.

"There are a lot of different things that can affect where the rainfall can occur in the storm and how heavy that rainfall will be," Matyas said. "Our goal is to work toward predicting how those factors will determine the rainfall pattern."

Forecasts want to provide inland residents with the same targeted advance warnings coastal residents receive -- but for heavy rainfall, rather than wind or storm surge.

Matyas presents her research in the journal Professional Geographer.