Model predicts pandemic flu spread

BLOOMINGTON, Ind., Jan. 23 (UPI) -- A U.S.-led team of scientists has developed a model that predicts how pandemic influenza might be spread around the world by airline passengers.

Visiting Assistant Professor Vittoria Colizza of the Indiana University School of Informatics and colleagues say the model is believed the world's largest-scale epidemic simulation of its kind.

Colizza conducted the study with researchers from the University of Paris-South and the French National institute of Health and Medical Research.

The scientists, concerned a human flu strain could be triggered by the H5N1 avian influenza virus, developed a mathematical model using passenger-flow data from the International Air Transport Association. Census information from more than 3,000 urban centers in 220 nations and related disease patterns from those areas also was analyzed.

The model was initially introduced in a previous study conducted by the same researchers more than a year ago, showing how air-transportation is responsible for the worldwide pattern of diseases.

In the latest study, the team simulated how an influenza pandemic would spread, both in time and geographically, and forecast scenarios and confidence intervals.

The research appears in the current issue of PLoS Medicine.