El Nino develops in the tropical Pacific

WASHINGTON, Sept. 14 (UPI) -- U.S. scientists say El Nino conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean and will affect weather patterns into 2007.

"Currently, weak El Nino conditions exist, but there's a potential for this event to strengthen into a moderate event by winter," said Vernon Kousky, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's lead El Nino forecaster.

Kousky said some El Nino effects are already evident: During the last 30 days, drier-than-average conditions have been observed across Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines.

Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster, said the weak El Nino conditions help explain why the current Atlantic hurricane season has been less active than expected. El Nino typically suppresses hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear over the Caribbean, he said.

Typical El Nino effects likely to develop over North America this winter include warmer-than-average conditions over western and central Canada and the western and northern United States. Wetter-than-average conditions are likely over portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, while a drier-than-average weather pattern can be expected in the Ohio Valley and the Pacific Northwest.