Strong 2012 sunspot cycle is forecast

BOULDER, Colo., March 6 (UPI) -- Government scientists say the next sunspot cycle will be 30-percent to 50-percent stronger than the last one, and begin as much as a year late.

The unprecedented forecast was made using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

Scientists predict the next cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the sun. The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than indicated by alternative forecasting methods that rely on statistics.

By analyzing recent solar cycles, the scientists also hope to forecast sunspot activity two solar cycles -- 22 years -- out. The team expects to issue within a year the forecast of Cycle 25, which will peak in the early 2020s.

The researchers expect that predicting the sun's cycles years in advance will lead to more accurate plans for solar storms, which can slow satellite orbits, disrupt communications, and bring down power systems.

The research results were published on-line in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.