Program aims to improve climate research

WASHINGTON, Dec. 3 (UPI) -- A three-day workshop on the science behind predicting climate change will help bridge the gap between the Bush administration and other nations on the issue of global warming, scientists said Tuesday.

The Climate Change Science Program Planning Workshop, hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, brought about 1,500 government, academic and private researchers together to discuss several aspects of the issue, said Jim Mahoney, assistant secretary of commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere and the CCSP's director.

"We have to accelerate the application of basic climate research for the evaluation of response strategy options, in order to make the very best choices," Mahoney told the workshop.

The gathering is part of the good moves the United States is making in increasing the resources it devotes to the problem, said G.O.P. Obasi, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.

"Reducing uncertainties in the scenarios that go into the (climate) models will put us into a better position to project future consequences," Obasi told a news conference at the event. "The workshop will really help the United States come into partnership with the rest of the world on the issue."

The workshop's results definitely will impact the CCSP's research plan, expected to land on the president's desk by April 2003, said John Marburger, director of the White House's Office of Science and Technology Policy. The administration is seeking advice from a wide array of stakeholders in the issue, he said.

"The aim of the program is not ... to delay action on accepting national responsibility for climate-changing actions; it is rather to respond to a huge and complex challenge in a national, rational and responsible way," Marburger said. "What we do not want is for the capability of the United States, to respond effectively to climate change, to be the first casualty of climate change concerns."

A central point of contention between U.S. and international officials is how strong a link can be drawn between human activities and climate change. Marburger referred to a National Academies of Science report that failed to find a conclusive link, but Obasi pointed out the WMO's latest report concluded most warming observed over the last 50 years is due to humanity's actions.

"The existence of uncertainties does not imply a total lack of knowledge on the subject," Obasi said. "For example, we are certain of the continued importance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. We also know such gases lead to a change in the radiative properties of the atmosphere/ocean/land/ice system."

An example of the incomplete data available today deals with the worldwide distribution of carbon in the atmosphere, said Scott Rayder, chief of staff in the office of the NOAA administrator. The United States for certain is one of the top emitters of carbon dioxide, he said, but some data indicate large amounts of carbon actually enters the country via the West Coast. This is a possible indication of U.S. carbon accumulation, but a more accurate "carbon map" is needed to draw firm conclusions, Ryder told United Press International.

One area of agreement is the need for more accurate methods of monitoring global climate conditions. Marburger pointed out the decline in ground-based observations, especially in developing countries.

American efforts in space-based observations continue to expand, said Sean O'Keefe, Administrator of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The agency is committed to deploying 26 advanced Earth-observing satellites in the next few years, he told the workshop via a satellite link from Anchorage, Alaska. The next three satellites, scheduled for launch in the coming weeks, will study the planet's ice sheets, wind speed at the ocean surface and how variations in the sun's output affect the globe, O'Keefe said.

Other technologies under development in the Energy Department will help reduce and eventually eliminate fossil-fuel emissions, said Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and David Garman, assistant secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy. For instance, the FreedomCAR project aims to help the auto industry develop affordable vehicles powered by fuel cells, which generate emissions-free electricity via the reaction that transforms hydrogen and oxygen into water, Garman said. Nuclear energy, which avoids the carbon dioxide and sulfur/nitrogen compounds of fossil fuels, will be essential in the nation's electricity generation future, Abraham said.