Betting on a futures exchange suitor

CHICAGO, April 19 (UPI) -- Like betting on if it will snow on Christmas, investors can now bet on which suitor a U.S. futures exchange entertaining two merger proposals will choose.

The U.S. Futures Exchange -- owned by Man Group PLC of Britain, a country where people bet on election results and reality TV contests -- has created futures contracts on whether Chicago Mercantile Exchange or upstart rival IntercontinentalExchange will merge with the 159-year-old Chicago Board of Trade.

One contract pays out $1,000 if Merc buys CBOT and the other pays out $1,000 if ICE does, Crain's Chicago Business reports. A Merc contract trading at $900 would show investors see a 90 percent chance Merc will win CBOT.

"The price reflected in the market can affect decision making," Michael Gorham, who once ran the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's surveillance team, told Crain's.

Merc Chief Executive Officer Craig Donohue has said he does not plan to raise his $8.9 billion bid, even though ICE has offered $9.8 billion.

But Gorham said, "If the market information tells you there's a 90 percent chance it's going to ICE, you'd better act if you want this thing."