Analysis: Experts predict Oscar for 'Baby'

LOS ANGELES, Feb. 22 (UPI) -- As the final polls close for voting on this year's Academy Awards, a panel of leading entertainment reporters and movie critics has pronounced "Million Dollar Baby" the favorite to win for Best Picture and Clint Eastwood the likely winner over Martin Scorsese for the directing Oscar.

The eight writers, who all contribute to the Web site GoldDerby.com, are nearly unanimous in their assessment that the boxing-themed drama will take the top prize Sunday and that Eastwood will collect a second Best Director Oscar to go with the one he received for the 1992 Western drama "Unforgiven."

GoldDerby.com's Tom O'Neil, who writes for In Touch Weekly and has published several authoritative guides to the Oscars and other entertainment awards, told United Press International there was a time when Scorsese's Howard Hughes biography "The Aviator" was a clear favorite, but that time has passed.

"The problem with 'The Aviator' is it was out front too early and it doesn't have emotional support," said O'Neil. "People admire the film. They don't love it the way they love 'Million Dollar Baby.' When you throw in the 'Clint factor' that sugar coats the apple."

The "Clint factor" is the notion that Hollywood holds more admiration for Eastwood that it does for most other filmmakers.

O'Neil said he and his colleagues felt the love in Hollywood for "Million Dollar Baby" through conversations with people in the movie business they routinely contact in the course of their reporting.

There has been a growing sort of conventional wisdom in Hollywood that Scorsese might as well get used to the idea that he will once again be deprived of an Oscar for a highly regarded piece of directing. He has been nominated in the past for "Raging Bull," "The Last Temptation of Christ," "GoodFellas" and "Gangs of New York" but has never won the top prize.

Thelma Schoonmaker, who is nominated for the Oscar for film editing for "The Aviator" and won the statuette for "Raging Bull," recently told UPI that Scorsese will be able to deal with the disappointment if academy voters go with Eastwood.

"He gave up long ago wanting these awards -- I think because they should have been given to him a long time ago for the great work that he's done," she said.

Schoonmaker's peers honored her last Saturday when the American Cinema Editors presented her with its top award -- known as The Eddie -- for best editing in a dramatic feature film for "The Aviator." The A.C.E. honored Paul Hirsch with an Eddie for best editing in a comedy or musical for "Ray."

Despite the consensus of the folks at GoldDerby.com, there are still indications in Hollywood that "The Aviator" might fly on Sunday. For example, as of Tuesday an unscientific online poll conducted by Daily Variety showed that visitors to the magazine's Web site went for "The Aviator" over "Million Dollar Baby" by 39 percent to 23 percent.

Also, "The Aviator" burnished its Best Picture credentials last month when the Producers Guild of America presented it with the prestigious Darryl F. Zanuck Award. That honor has been a fairly reliable indicator of eventual Oscar outcomes since it was first presented in 1989 -- with 11 of the 15 PGA winners going on to win the Best Picture Oscar.

O'Neil said some other less talked about factors should also weigh in Scorsese's favor.

"There is the 'overdue director' aspect," he said, "and a component few usually site: It's the longest movie, and the longest movie usually wins Best Picture."

It is also the case that the movie with the most nominations tends to take to top Oscar, and this year that would be "The Aviator," with 11 nominations.

"('The Aviator') has every essential tea leaf pointing towards Oscar," said O'Neil, "including the PGA Award and Golden Globe."

Eastwood has some historical tendencies going for him as well. As the winner of the Directors Guild of America's top feature directing prize, he is a solid front-runner for the directing Oscar. Historically, the directing Oscar and the Best Picture statuette have tended to go hand-in-hand -- although there have been some exceptions, including 2002, when Roman Polanski won Best Director for "The Pianist," while "Chicago" won for Best Picture.

More than anything else though, this year reminds O'Neil of the surprise win for "Chariots of Fire" almost a quarter century ago, when most observers expected Warren Beatty's epic "Reds" to take the top Oscar.

"This year looks a lot like 1982," said O'Neil, "when a little movie about athletic underdogs beat an epic that everyone favored -- a big, admired epic."

The other Best Picture nominees are "Finding Neverland," "Ray" and "Sideways."

The 77th Academy Awards will be presented Sunday at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood, in ceremonies to be televised live by ABC with Chris Rock as host.

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