Analysis: Legs, coattails and 'Fahrenheit'

LOS ANGELES, June 28 (UPI) -- "Fahrenheit 9/11" is a certified box-office hit, but some questions remain -- and the question of whether, or how, it will affect the November presidential election may depend largely on how long it can maintain strong consumer interest at the box office.

The movie broke several box-office records in its opening weekend, becoming the highest-grossing documentary of all time, with $21.8 million on 868 screens. The previous record holder was Moore's Oscar-winning "Bowling for Columbine," with $21.6 million over a nine-month run in theaters.

"Fahrenheit 9/11" also put up the best opening numbers ever for a movie playing on fewer than 1,000 screens.

Moore has said that he wants his movie to be known as the first big-audience, election-year film that helped turn out a president. But before "Fahrenheit 9/11" can have electoral coattails, it will need to show box-office legs.

The consortium of companies that is distributing the movie -- Lions Gate Releasing, IFC Entertainment and the Fellowship Adventure Group -- plans to get it onto as many as 2,000 screens -- possibly as soon as July 9. Whether they succeed will depend largely on whether screens are available, as big summer movies such as "Spider-Man 2" and "King Arthur" arrive in the marketplace to further crowd the summer release schedule.

There is little doubt that Moore's film has already had an impact on the 2004 election, even if it is too early to measure its size and proportions.

Moore's skillful, some would say cunning, exploitation of the great American marketing machine has propelled his movie to a prominent place on the short list of national talking points. The forceful nature of his argument against President George W. Bush's policies has provoked an energetic national conversation about "Fahrenheit 9/11" -- one that will likely subside only when Americans have grown tired of engaging in it.

One of the major champions of the film's box-office success, MoveOn.org, is taking steps to prolong that conversation for as long as possible. The political action committee -- which claimed credit for gaining commitments from more than 100,000 members to buy tickets for the movie's opening weekend -- followed up on that effort by scheduling hundreds of house parties nationwide Monday, with Moore addressing attendees and taking questions through a telephone hookup.

MoveOn called the virtual town hall "Turn Up the Heat." Organizers said the intention was to turn "anger into action" by instructing people how they can participate in local efforts to unseat Bush in November.

"Michael Moore is a hero to many for saying things no one else will say," said MoveOn's Adam Ruben.

Although "Fahrenheit 9/11" plays most naturally to a left-liberal constituency, it is also playing in Peoria -- literally. Harvey Weinstein, who, with his brother Bob heads the Fellowship Adventure Group, told the Los Angeles Times every show in Peoria, Ill., during the weekend was sold out.

"The movie has transcended its genre," said Weinstein. "It's playing like a 'movie,' not a 'documentary.'"

Weinstein said "Fahrenheit 9/11" even sold well -- although it did not sell out -- in Odessa/Midland, Texas, President Bush's home state.

Moore told The New York Times the movie sold out in Fayetteville, N.C., the home of Fort Bragg, and got standing ovations in Greensboro, N.C.

"We sold out in Army-base towns," he said. "We set house records in some of these places."

The movie is attracting people of all age groups -- except for the under-17 crowd, restricted by the Motion Picture Association of America's R rating. Distributors said the audience is roughly split between men and women, 80 percent white, 5 percent African-American and 5 percent Latino.

"The biggest news to me this morning is this is a red-state movie," Moore said, referring to states that went for Bush in the 2000 presidential election.

"The right wing is getting a Christmas card from me," he said.

Distributors credited advertising on news programs and Comedy Central with helping the movie appeal to men over 25. Plans call for a new round of ads on the Lifetime and Oxygen cable networks to try to draw more women to the movie.

A significant part of the business for "Fahrenheit 9/11" was the result of its "must see" nature -- Americans are virtually mandated to have an opinion about it. Revolution Studios partner Tom Sherak told the Los Angeles Times Moore's movie had that much in common with "The Passion of the Christ" -- the Mel Gibson blockbuster that also benefited at the ticket window from heated debate about its content.

"Like 'Passion,' this one arrived with a lot of hoopla and polarization," said Sherak. "Without seeing it, you can't talk about it."

That last point is debatable, considering the degree to which many people are willing to discuss -- often at length -- movies they have not seen and books they have not read. In any case, Moore's movie has muscled its way into political and cultural debate among the informed and the uninformed alike.

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