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Oscar race too close to call

By PAT NASON, UPI Hollywood Reporter
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LOS ANGELES, March 22 (UPI) -- Heading into Oscars night, there is anything but a consensus in Hollywood about which of the five nominated features will win for best picture at the 74th Academy Awards.

"In the Bedroom" and "Gosford Park" are generally regarded as also-rans for the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' top prize, but each of the other three nominees -- "A Beautiful Mind," "The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring" and "Moulin Rouge" -- has its own bandwagon.

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There have been years when bandwagons morphed into juggernauts -- think "Titanic" -- but that has not happened this year. Each of the nominated pictures has a historical trend going for it, and each has a fiercely loyal following, but none seems to have gotten the upper hand on the rest.

"A Beautiful Mind" should benefit from the academy's historical tendency to tie the best picture and director Oscars together. As the winner of the Directors Guild of America Award, Ron Howard seems to have a fairly firm grip on his first directing Oscar.

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Another historical trend, however, provides a counterweight to the DGA bellwether. It's typical of the academy to give best picture to the movie with the most nominations -- in this case, "The Lord of the Rings: the Fellowship of the Ring," with 13.

But wait -- the academy also has a tendency to give the Oscar to the winner of the Producers Guild of America's best picture winner. This year, that's "Moulin Rouge."

The race for best actor is also difficult to call, but most observers in Hollywood agree that it's down to Russell Crowe ("A Beautiful Mind") and Denzel Washington ("Training Day").

Both performances are regarded as brilliant, and both actors are ranked among the most able of their generation -- but Crowe may have hurt his own cause by accosting a British Broadcasting Corp. executive after his acceptance speech at Britain's BAFTA Awards was edited down for the ceremony's telecast.

Sissy Spacek ("In the Bedroom") was widely regarded as a consensus choice for best actress, but Halle Berry ("Monster's Ball") saw her Oscar stock rise when she won the Screen Actors Guild Award for female actor in a leading role. Nicole Kidman also has a following for her performance in "Moulin Rouge."

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Regardless of how the best actor and actress races turn out, this year's Oscars have already generated an unusual amount of recognition for the work of black performers.

For the first time since 1972, three blacks are nominated in the lead acting categories. Also, the academy will present an honorary Oscar to Sidney Poitier, the only black actor ever to receive the top acting Oscar (for "Lilies of the Field" in 1963).

On top of all that, Sunday's telecast is being hosted by a black Oscar winner, Whoopi Goldberg. She took home the supporting actress trophy for "Ghost" in 1990.

At the annual nominees luncheon, someone asked Washington if there is any meaning behind the record-tying number of nominations for black actors. He said he assumes academy voters just went with the best performances, and suggested that it might mean black actors are being offered better roles.

Also at the luncheon, Will Smith was frank to admit that he doesn't stand much of a chance to take the Oscar for his portrayal of heavyweight boxing champion Muhammad Ali in "Ali," but he's proud that -- from all the lead performances turned in by actors in 2001 -- academy voters saw fit to recognize his as one of the five best.

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When Smith was reminded that he was the first rapper to be nominated for a best actor Oscar, he laughed and said: "That's cool. I've made history already."

Berry said the critical acclaim she has received should give hope to all "actors of color."

Only six blacks have won acting Oscars in the history of the Academy Awards. That figure represents just over 2 percent of all winners. Over that time, 39 blacks have been nominated for acting Oscars -- with 31 of those nominations coming since 1970.

The security arrangements surrounding this year's Academy Awards are unprecedented for Hollywood, rivaling the level of security provided for national political conventions and presidential visits.

The Kodak Theatre -- the new home of the Oscars ceremony -- will be locked down for a security sweep for three hours on Sunday morning. Journalists will be required to pass through at least three security checkpoints on their way into the press room. And, for the first time, the academy required fans who want to sit in bleachers along the red carpet to apply for those seats and submit to background checks.

The new stringency is largely a result of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, but it is also a continuation of a trend toward tighter security at major awards shows in recent years.

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