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THE IRAQI QUESTION

One of the most influential U.S. strategists is warning that the relatively easy victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan cannot be a "model" for a quick defeat of Iraq's Saddam Hussein.

Anthony H. Cordesman, former assistant for national security affairs to Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said that there are significant differences between the political military situation in the two countries "and at the same time, the similarities are as much an argument for caution as for action."

"The Taliban," he writes, "was never a real state," but Saddam's regime "is an enduring, relatively modern tyranny with modern military forces" that survived eight years of war with Iran and a stunning defeat in 1991 by the U.S.-led coalition in the Persian Gulf war.

In a nine-page paper for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the former Defense and State Department official noted that the "Taliban and al Qaida had virtually no air force, no real modern surface-to-air missile defense system," while the Iraq military "is still a force of over 400,000 actives, 2,200 tanks, and 8,000 other armored vehicles" and an air force of over 300 operational combat and a significant, "battle experienced" surface-to-air missile force.

"Al Qaida examined weapons of mass destruction at low levels, but there is no evidence that it succeeded in actually weaponizing any form of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear device," he reports. By contrast, Iraq's chemical and biological "capabilities are extensive," he said. Though Cordesman suggests some defector reports of nuclear devices "are probably exaggerated, but possible," it has the ability to "rapidly weaponize large amounts of highly lethal biological agents, if it has not already done so." Furthermore, Iraq "probably retains" some ability to assemble and fire variations of Scud missiles with chemical or biological warheads.

Saddam used chemical agents in the war against Iran and fired Scuds at Saudi Arabia and Israel during the Gulf War.

Cordesman notes how the Taliban "faced significant armed opposition" in the recent fighting. But he describes Iraq's two principal opposition forces -- the Iraqi National Congress, formed of the two main Kurdish militias, and the Iraqi National Accord, formed of former Iraqi security and military officers -- as "hollow shells" with no military capabilities.

Cordesman pointed out that the fact there is opposition at all, of course, contributes to the possibility that Saddam's reign can be ended. The war that would be successful as Cordesman sees it appears to be a combination of the Afghan conflict and the heavy armored division that defeated Iraq in 1991.

"Over-deploy enough U.S. forces to win rapidly, to keep casualties on all sides low and to limit collateral damage," he advised.

-- What do you think?

(Thanks to UPI Senior White House Correspondent Nicholas M. Horrock in Washington)

JAILED SCRIBE

A lawyer for jailed writer Vanessa Leggett has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to free the writer from a federal detention facility in Houston.

Leggett, 33, was jailed July 20 by a federal judge for refusing to turn over notes and recordings to a federal grand jury investigating Houston millionaire Robert Angleton. A three-member panel of the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the contempt ruling in August.

Leggett has been held in a federal jail more than twice as long as any other journalist in U.S. history, according to Mike DeGeurin, her attorney.

In a motion filed with the Supreme Court, DeGeurin said the intermediate appeals court erred in its ruling that Leggett was not protected by the First Amendment. "I'm requesting that the government protect journalists from the government using them as an investigative arm of the government," he told the Houston Chronicle.

Federal prosecutors claim Leggitt is not a journalist and therefore not protected by the First Amendment. Dozens of civil rights groups, including the Inter American Press Association and the Freedom of Information Foundation of Texas have called for Leggitt's release.

Leggitt, a former part-time English instructor at the University of Houston, was planning to write a book about Robert Angleton's wife, Doris, who was shot to death in her home in 1997. Her husband was acquitted in 1998 on state charges of hiring his brother Roger to kill his wife. Roger Angleton committed suicide before he could be tried for capital murder.

-- What's your definition of a journalist? Does Leggett fit the description? Why or why not? Should she be required to turn over to investigators her notes and recordings?

ALIENATION

A new Harris Poll finds a remarkable drop, for the second year in a row, in the strong sense of alienation that many people -- particularly people with less education or low incomes -- feel toward the rich and powerful.

The Harris Interactive Alienation Index is based on the replies to five questions asked at the end of each year, usually in December. It has fallen to 47, the lowest level of alienation measured by Harris Interactive in any year since 1972. Fewer people are alienated now, by Harris's definition, than at any time in the last 29 years.

Not all of the items in the Index have fallen by the same amount. The number of people who believe that "the rich get richer and the poor get poorer," at 69 percent, is unchanged from last year and down only five points since 1999. Those who believe they are "left out of things going on around" them, at 33 percent, are down six points from last year. Those who believe "most people with power try to take advantage of people like yourself," at 48 percent, are down 11 points since 2000. The biggest drop for the five questions included in the Index is the 17-point decline in the number of people who feel "the people running the country don't really care what happens to you," down from 53 percent to 36 percent since a year ago.

One other question, which is not included in the Index in part because Harris only began asking it in 1992, shows the biggest decline of all. This year only 51 percent feel that "the people in Washington are out of touch with the rest of the country," down fully 22 points from the 73 percent last year, and down from a high of 83 percent in both 1992 and 1994.

1,011 people were questioned by telephone for the survey, which has been tracking alienation for 35 years, since 1966.

-- How alienated do you feel, and why?

(Web site: harrisinteractive.com)