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Analysis: Russia dangles nuclear carrot


Published: Nov. 2, 2007 at 10:08 AM
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By JOHN C.K. DALY
UPI International Correspondent
As Russia and China quietly maneuver for control of the Caspian region's vast energy reserves, both are looking ahead to a post-hydrocarbon world and beginning to cooperate on nuclear power.

Russia is already in the Bush administration's bad books for its contributions to Iran’s attempts to develop domestic nuclear power alternatives to oil-based power generation.

The impasse in U.S.-Iranian relations is worsening largely because of Iran's efforts to finish its first nuclear reactor. Russian companies are building the 915 megawatt VVER-1000 PWR at Bushehr at an estimated cost of $1 billion to $2 billion. The Bush administration argues that a country awash in oil has a covert agenda to develop nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies, maintaining that instead it is looking past a period when its "peak oil" exports decline.

With oil topping $95 a barrel, global interest in nuclear energy is increasing. As of August, 30 countries operate a total of 439 nuclear reactors for electricity generation, which collectively provide about 16 percent of the world's electricity production; 11 nations are building 30 new nuclear power facilities.

The Russian Federation operates 10 nuclear power plants with a total of 31 reaktor bol'shoi moshchnosti kanalnii reactor units, which supply approximately 16 percent of Russia's energy needs. Except for the Bilbino Nuclear Power Plant in eastern Siberia, the other nine complexes are all located in European Russia. Of the 15 nations emerging from the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991, former Soviet nuclear complexes operating are located at Metsamor, Armenia; Sosny, Belarus and Paldiski, Estonia.

Kazakhstan's BM-350 135 megawatt reactor was decommissioned in 1999. Lithuania's Ignalina-1 RBMK reactor complex was shut down Dec. 31, 2004, as a condition of the country joining the European Union. Lithuania's 1,185 megawatt Ignalina-2 RBMK complex is scheduled for closure in 2009, but the country's transition to non-nuclear fuel will not be easy, as the Ignalina-2 complex provides 72.3 percent of the country's energy needs.

While Russia's involvement in Bushehr is the most controversial and visible element of its drive in nuclear energy exports, Moscow seems poised to export its expertise to another country with soaring energy needs: China. During a Nov. 1 interview with Interfax, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, "The first phase of the Tianwan nuclear power plant is one of the major projects in trade and economic cooperation between China and Russia. Thanks to efforts taken by both sides toward resolving difficulties, power units one and two of the first phase were brought into commercial operation in May and August this year, respectively, and they are working properly now."

Assuming an upbeat note, Wen added, "Our companies are discussing the expansion of cooperation on nuclear energy now. We treat this positively," with Chinese-Russian nuclear cooperation having "achieved impressive results, significantly strengthens the strategic partnership between our countries."

He said the two governments are "working intensively on the soonest possible signing of a protocol between China and Russia on midterm cooperation on the civilian use of nuclear energy. The protocol will set benchmarks for Chinese-Russian cooperation in the coming decades."

China is a relative newcomer to nuclear power generation, deriving only 2.3 percent of its electricity from nuclear power, compared with the United States’ nearly 20 percent nuclear power generation. Of China's 11 current nuclear power plants, the oldest, Qingshan-1, only came online in 1991. In contrast, Russia's oldest operational nuclear power facility, Novovoronezh-3, came online two decades earlier, in 1971. While Western attention is focused on growing Chinese involvement in the global energy market, Beijing has already announced plans to spend $50 billion to build an additional 32 nuclear plants by 2020. China's interest in nuclear energy has already affected world markets; as Wen travels the globe to secure access to uranium reserves, having concluded agreements with both Niger and Australia, uranium ore prices have soared from $10 a pound in 2003 to a high of $136 earlier this year.

The 1986 Chernobyl disaster notwithstanding, Russia's decades-old nuclear expertise may well prove to be an important bargaining chip in its ongoing covert tussle with China to divert Beijing's interest in exploiting Central Asia's energy resources, as China increasingly moves to a post-hydrocarbon energy future. According to Sergei Kiriyenko, chief of Russia’s Rosatom, Russia's uranium reserves are considerably higher than the government’s stated estimate of 870,000 tons. In order to continue to underwrite its lucrative natural gas exports to Western Europe, Moscow needs unimpeded access to Central Asia's burgeoning gas reserves, and dangling a nuclear carrot before Beijing may well prove Russia's trump card in drawing Chinese attention away from further bidding for the Caspian's hydrocarbon assets.

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(e-mail: energy@upi.com)

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